Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM UNTIL
200 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE
INDIANA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...WW 2...WW 3...WW
4...WW 5...
DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW DEPICTED IN VWP
DATA OVER SRN MI AND NRN IL SUGGEST LEWPY NRN IND/SRN MI SQUALL LINE
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TOWARD DTX/TOL. WHILE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL
ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...STRENGTH OF
WIND FIELD AND EXISTING LEWP STRUCTURES SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 6 TORNADO IN MI OH LE LH 080220Z - 080700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25S FWA/FORT WAYNE IN/ - 10N BAX/BAD AXE MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /22S FWA - 36SSE ASP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
LAT...LON 40618612 43918398 43918198 40618423
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 6 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 6
VALID 080430Z - 080700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E DTW TO
20 SW MTC TO 25 ENE FNT TO 35 ENE FNT TO 55 NE MTC.
WW 6 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080700Z.
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH INGESTION OF DRIER SURFACE AIR UPSTREAM.
GREATEST THREAT IS FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ERN MI BEFORE STORMS
MOVE INTO CANADA.
..JEWELL..01/08/08
ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC087-099-147-080700-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAPEER MACOMB ST. CLAIR
$$
LCZ422-460-LHZ443-464-080700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 6
VALID 080415Z - 080540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FWA TO
20 WNW FWA TO 30 NNE FWA TO 25 WNW TOL TO 20 S ARB TO 10 SE ARB
TO 15 N DTW TO 15 E FNT TO 30 ENE FNT TO 50 NE MTC.
..JEWELL..01/08/08
ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-033-053-069-075-169-179-080540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY WABASH WELLS
$$
MIC087-099-115-125-147-163-080540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAPEER MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-063-069-095-123-125-137-143-161-171-173-080540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS
OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM
SANDUSKY VAN WERT WILLIAMS
WOOD
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-162-444-LHZ443-464-080540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 6
VALID 080340Z - 080440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W FWA TO
25 NW FWA TO 45 NNE FWA TO 35 S JXN TO 20 SW ARB TO 10 NW ARB TO
20 SSW FNT TO 20 SE MBS TO 35 NNE BAX.
..JEWELL..01/08/08
ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-033-053-069-075-151-169-179-183-080440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITLEY
$$
MIC049-063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-157-161-163-080440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GENESEE HURON LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR
SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-063-069-095-123-125-137-143-161-171-173-080440-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS
OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM
SANDUSKY VAN WERT WILLIAMS
WOOD
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-162-444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-
080440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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