Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...WW 148...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...IS DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWEST AR/EASTERN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES OVER WESTERN AR AND EASTERN OK.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 149 TORNADO AR MO OK 312045Z - 010400Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
30SSW MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 60NE UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM EITHER SIDE /24SSW MLC - 45WSW FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 35099643 37999155 36749063 33849554
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 149 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 149
VALID 010330Z - 010400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX
TO 40 W DEQ.
WW 149 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010400Z.
..GRAMS..04/01/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC023-010400-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 149
VALID 010230Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE DUA TO
25 NNW DEQ.
..GRAMS..04/01/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC023-127-010340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 149
VALID 010140Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MLC TO
45 WNW DEQ TO 45 SE FSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 527.
..GRAMS..04/01/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC023-127-010240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 149
VALID 010055Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MLC
TO 35 ESE MLC TO 20 SE RKR TO 10 WSW RUE TO 35 NE RUE TO 35 NNW
BVX TO 30 WSW POF TO 15 NNW CGI.
..JEWELL..04/01/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC065-115-127-135-137-141-149-010140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IZARD POPE SCOTT
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
YELL
$$
OKC023-127-010140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 149
VALID 312355Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MLC TO
30 E MLC TO 5 ENE RKR TO 25 E FSM TO 35 SSW HRO TO 20 SSW UNO TO
20 ESE UNO TO 40 NW POF TO 25 SW FAM TO 10 SSW FAM.
..JEWELL..03/31/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-049-065-071-083-089-101-115-127-129-135-137-141-149-
010040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER FULTON IZARD
JOHNSON LOGAN MARION
NEWTON POPE SCOTT
SEARCY SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN YELL
$$
MOC149-010040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OREGON
$$
OKC023-029-077-079-121-127-010040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW COAL LATIMER
LE FLORE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 149
VALID 312235Z - 312340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AND 45 W
MLC TO 10 WNW MLC TO 25 ENE MLC TO 25 WNW FSM TO 15 E FYV TO 15 W
HRO TO 20 ENE HRO TO 30 N FLP TO 35 WNW UNO TO 30 NNW UNO TO 25
ESE TBN TO 20 SE VIH.
..JEWELL..03/31/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-033-047-049-065-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-
131-135-137-141-143-149-312340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN FULTON
IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN
MADISON MARION NEWTON
POPE SCOTT SEARCY
SEBASTIAN SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL
$$
MOC065-067-091-149-153-203-215-312340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL
OREGON OZARK SHANNON
TEXAS
$$
OKC023-029-061-063-077-079-121-123-127-135-312340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL
HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 149
VALID 312145Z - 312240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLC TO
30 SW MKO TO 30 ENE MKO TO 25 N FYV TO 25 NNW HRO TO 25 ESE SGF
TO 35 SW TBN TO 5 NE TBN.
..JEWELL..03/31/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-049-065-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-
129-131-135-137-141-143-149-312240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
FULTON IZARD JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MARION
NEWTON POPE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
YELL
$$
MOC043-065-067-091-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-
312240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS
HOWELL OREGON OZARK
PHELPS PULASKI SHANNON
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-023-029-061-063-077-079-091-121-123-127-135-312240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.