Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOME OF THE
WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE PATTERN. MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORT RAPID NEAR-SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE ILKLEY TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION...WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHERMORE...STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL AND
PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 293 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 101630Z - 110000Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45NW BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 50NE HRO/HARRISON AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM N/S /56ESE ICT - 52SE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 38819659 38369251 35189251 35639659
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 293 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 293
VALID 102355Z - 110000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MKO
TO 15 W JLN TO 20 SW OJC.
WW 293 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN MO...FAR NERN
OK...SERN KS AND NWRN AR.
..CROSBIE..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-110000-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-003-011-021-037-045-059-099-133-110000-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN LABETTE NEOSHO
$$
MOC011-015-029-039-085-097-141-185-217-110000-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BENTON CAMDEN
CEDAR HICKORY JASPER
MORGAN ST. CLAIR VERNON
$$
OKC001-021-041-135-110000-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 293
VALID 102250Z - 110000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MKO TO
35 ENE BVO TO 30 SW TOP.
WW 293 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...BUT NEW WW/S WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
..JPR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-049-063-065-071-087-089-101-115-
129-131-135-137-141-143-110000-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN FULTON INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-003-011-021-031-037-045-059-091-099-107-121-133-139-
110000-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LABETTE LINN MIAMI
NEOSHO OSAGE
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-
101-105-109-119-141-145-153-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-
110000-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MORGAN NEWTON
OZARK POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-041-097-101-115-135-145-110000-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE MAYES MUSKOGEE
OTTAWA SEQUOYAH WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 293
VALID 102200Z - 102340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CQB
TO 25 S MHK.
A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY CONCERNING THIS WW.
..JPR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-049-063-065-071-087-089-101-115-
129-131-135-137-141-143-102340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN FULTON INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-003-011-017-019-021-031-037-045-049-059-073-091-099-107-
111-121-125-133-139-205-207-102340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COFFEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS
ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD
JOHNSON LABETTE LINN
LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO OSAGE WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-
101-105-109-119-141-145-153-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-
102340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MORGAN NEWTON
OZARK POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-131-135-143-145-
147-102340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA ROGERS
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 293
VALID 102025Z - 102140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-087-089-101-115-129-131-141-
143-102140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-003-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-091-
099-107-111-121-125-133-139-205-207-102140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY
CRAWFORD DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON
LABETTE LINN LYON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-
101-105-109-119-141-145-153-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-
102140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MORGAN NEWTON
OZARK POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-117-131-135-143-
145-147-102140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 293
VALID 101940Z - 102040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-087-089-101-115-129-131-141-
143-102040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-003-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-091-
099-107-111-121-125-133-139-205-207-102040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY
CRAWFORD DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON
LABETTE LINN LYON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-
101-105-109-119-141-145-153-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-
102040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MORGAN NEWTON
OZARK POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-117-131-135-143-
145-147-102040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 293
VALID 101900Z - 102040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-087-089-101-115-129-131-141-
143-102040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-003-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-091-
099-107-111-121-125-133-139-205-207-102040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY
CRAWFORD DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON
LABETTE LINN LYON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-
101-105-109-119-141-145-153-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-
102040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MORGAN NEWTON
OZARK POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-117-131-135-143-
145-147-102040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 293
VALID 101745Z - 101840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CROSBIE..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-087-089-101-115-129-131-141-
143-101840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN JOHNSON MADISON
MARION NEWTON POPE
SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-003-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-091-
099-107-111-121-125-133-139-205-207-101840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY
CRAWFORD DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON
LABETTE LINN LYON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-
101-105-109-119-141-145-153-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-
101840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MORGAN NEWTON
OZARK POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-111-113-115-117-131-135-143-
145-147-101840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.