Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF CUBA NEW
MEXICO TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NM FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH E/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW OF
MOISTURE CONTINUING...AIR MASS IS NOW UNSTABLE AND WITH LITTLE
REMAINING CINH. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE SHEAR. ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...HALES
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF CUBA NEW
MEXICO TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NM FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH E/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW OF
MOISTURE CONTINUING...AIR MASS IS NOW UNSTABLE AND WITH LITTLE
REMAINING CINH. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE SHEAR. ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 383 TORNADO NM 282030Z - 290300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80NE 4SL/CUBA NM/ - 50WSW CNM/CARLSBAD NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /31S ALS - 64ENE ELP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
LAT...LON 36830466 32040386 32040625 36830719
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 383 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 383
VALID 290035Z - 290140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..05/29/08
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-027-028-033-035-039-043-047-049-
053-055-057-061-290140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO CHAVES COLFAX
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS
MORA OTERO RIO ARRIBA
SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
SOCORRO TAOS TORRANCE
VALENCIA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 383
VALID 282335Z - 290040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075
..BOTHWELL..05/28/08
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-027-028-033-035-039-043-047-049-
053-055-057-061-290040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO CHAVES COLFAX
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS
MORA OTERO RIO ARRIBA
SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
SOCORRO TAOS TORRANCE
VALENCIA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 383
VALID 282240Z - 282340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075
..BOTHWELL..05/28/08
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-027-028-033-035-039-043-047-049-
053-055-057-061-282340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO CHAVES COLFAX
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS
MORA OTERO RIO ARRIBA
SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
SOCORRO TAOS TORRANCE
VALENCIA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 383
VALID 282140Z - 282240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..05/28/08
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 383
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC001-005-007-011-015-019-021-027-028-033-035-039-043-047-049-
053-055-057-061-282240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO CHAVES COLFAX
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS
MORA OTERO RIO ARRIBA
SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
SOCORRO TAOS TORRANCE
VALENCIA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
