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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 AM EDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GAINESVILLE FLORIDA TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VIDALIA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 101...WW 102...WW 103...
DISCUSSION...STRONG SRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
ATOP RICH GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED W-E ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GA. AS
AFTERNOON HEATING WEAKENS CAPPING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH
THE LOWER 70S...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 104 TORNADO FL GA CW 021230Z - 021900Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25ESE GNV/GAINESVILLE FL/ - 50WNW VDI/VIDALIA GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /43WNW OMN - 28ESE MCN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 29548287 32458419 32458212 29548088
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 104 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 104
VALID 021735Z - 021840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE VLD
TO 20 ESE AYS TO 20 NNW SSI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 368.
..GRAMS..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-041-047-089-109-121-125-021840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION
$$
GAC039-049-101-127-021840-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON ECHOLS
GLYNN
$$
AMZ450-452-454-021840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 104
VALID 021640Z - 021740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW VLD TO
30 ESE VDI.
..GRAMS..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-041-047-089-109-121-125-021740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION
$$
GAC005-025-039-049-065-101-127-229-299-305-021740-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN
CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS
GLYNN PIERCE WARE
WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-454-021740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 104
VALID 021535Z - 021640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-041-047-089-109-121-125-021640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-023-025-039-049-065-069-091-093-101-127-153-161-
175-193-209-229-235-271-279-283-299-305-309-315-021640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BLECKLEY BRANTLEY CAMDEN
CHARLTON CLINCH COFFEE
DODGE DOOLY ECHOLS
GLYNN HOUSTON JEFF DAVIS
LAURENS MACON MONTGOMERY
PIERCE PULASKI TELFAIR
TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARE
WAYNE WHEELER WILCOX
$$
AMZ450-452-454-021640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 104
VALID 021430Z - 021540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-041-047-089-109-121-125-021540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-023-025-039-049-065-069-091-093-101-127-153-161-
175-193-209-229-235-271-279-283-299-305-309-315-021540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BLECKLEY BRANTLEY CAMDEN
CHARLTON CLINCH COFFEE
DODGE DOOLY ECHOLS
GLYNN HOUSTON JEFF DAVIS
LAURENS MACON MONTGOMERY
PIERCE PULASKI TELFAIR
TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARE
WAYNE WHEELER WILCOX
$$
AMZ450-452-454-021540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 104
VALID 021335Z - 021440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/02/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-041-047-089-109-121-125-021440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
GILCHRIST HAMILTON NASSAU
ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-023-025-039-049-065-069-091-093-101-127-153-161-
175-193-209-229-235-271-279-283-299-305-309-315-021440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BLECKLEY BRANTLEY CAMDEN
CHARLTON CLINCH COFFEE
DODGE DOOLY ECHOLS
GLYNN HOUSTON JEFF DAVIS
LAURENS MACON MONTGOMERY
PIERCE PULASKI TELFAIR
TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARE
WAYNE WHEELER WILCOX
$$
AMZ450-452-454-021440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.