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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 247...WW 248...
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FT WORTH AREA...AND MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE LONGER. OTHERWISE...NEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
SPS-FSM AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 249 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 060430Z - 061200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45S RKR/POTEAU OK/ - 50SSW SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /58NNW TXK - 43SSW SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 33369462 32299883 34319883 35389462
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 249 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 249
VALID 060955Z - 061040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW TYR
TO 25 W SPS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AND LIKELY WW REPLACEMENT FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC131-061040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SEBASTIAN
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-063-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-
121-123-127-137-061040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL COTTON
GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
STEPHENS
$$
TXC077-085-097-119-147-181-223-231-277-337-485-061040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DELTA FANNIN GRAYSON
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MONTAGUE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 249
VALID 060845Z - 060940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW TYR
TO 20 W SPS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 724.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC131-060940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SEBASTIAN
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-063-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-
121-123-127-137-060940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL COTTON
GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
STEPHENS
$$
TXC077-085-097-119-147-181-223-231-277-337-485-060940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DELTA FANNIN GRAYSON
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MONTAGUE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 249
VALID 060730Z - 060840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW TYR
TO 30 W SPS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 724.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC131-060840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SEBASTIAN
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-063-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-
121-123-127-137-060840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL COTTON
GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
STEPHENS
$$
TXC077-085-097-119-147-181-223-231-277-337-485-060840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DELTA FANNIN GRAYSON
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MONTAGUE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 249
VALID 060640Z - 060740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW TYR
TO 25 WSW SPS.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC131-060740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SEBASTIAN
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-063-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-
121-123-127-137-060740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL COTTON
GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
STEPHENS
$$
TXC077-085-097-119-147-181-223-231-277-337-485-060740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DELTA FANNIN GRAYSON
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MONTAGUE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 249
VALID 060530Z - 060640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FTW TO
55 WNW MWL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 720.
..EDWARDS..05/06/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC131-060640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SEBASTIAN
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-063-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-
121-123-127-137-060640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL COTTON
GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
STEPHENS
$$
TXC009-077-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-237-251-
257-277-337-349-367-379-397-439-467-485-497-503-060640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY COLLIN
COOKE DALLAS DELTA
DENTON ELLIS FANNIN
GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT
WICHITA WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.