Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1015 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW 261...
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS/POSSIBLE MARGINAL SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG AXIS OF CONFLUENT AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
WSWLY LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ON SRN FRINGE OF MODERATE ZONAL
MID LVL JET. ASSOCIATED DEEP SHEAR AND WAA MAY BOOST THREAT FOR SVR
HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 262 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 080315Z - 081100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
80WSW JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 35NE PAH/PADUCAH KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /47E BUM - 40SW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 38959351 38228831 36638831 37349351
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 262 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 262
VALID 080630Z - 080740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 262
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-055-059-069-077-087-127-133-145-151-153-157-165-181-199-
080740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HARDIN JACKSON JOHNSON
MASSAC MONROE PERRY
POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-145-157-080740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MOC015-017-029-031-035-051-055-059-065-071-073-085-093-099-105-
123-125-131-133-135-141-143-151-157-161-169-179-186-187-201-203-
207-215-221-223-225-229-080740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLLINGER CAMDEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER COLE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT
FRANKLIN GASCONADE HICKORY
IRON JEFFERSON LACLEDE
MADISON MARIES MILLER
MISSISSIPPI MONITEAU MORGAN
NEW MADRID OSAGE PERRY
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
SHANNON STODDARD TEXAS
WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 262
VALID 080455Z - 080540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 753
..GUYER..05/08/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 262
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-055-059-069-077-087-127-133-145-151-153-157-165-181-199-
080540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HARDIN JACKSON JOHNSON
MASSAC MONROE PERRY
POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-145-157-080540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MOC015-017-029-031-035-051-055-059-065-071-073-085-093-099-105-
123-125-131-133-135-141-143-151-157-161-169-179-186-187-201-203-
207-215-221-223-225-229-080540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLLINGER CAMDEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER COLE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT
FRANKLIN GASCONADE HICKORY
IRON JEFFERSON LACLEDE
MADISON MARIES MILLER
MISSISSIPPI MONITEAU MORGAN
NEW MADRID OSAGE PERRY
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
SHANNON STODDARD TEXAS
WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.