SEL3
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
          NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
          LAKE ERIE
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
   PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN NEW YORK TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 680...WW 681...WW 682...
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN ONTARIO IS
   EXPECTED TO CROSS PARTS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERN LAKE ERIE AND MOVE
   INTO PARTS OF NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES.  CLOUDS ARE
   THINNING OVER WRN NY ATTM...AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.  30-40 WNWLY MID
   LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
   MAINTAIN ORGANIZED QLCS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28025.
   
   
   ...WEISS

   SEL3
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
          NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
          LAKE ERIE
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
   PM EDT.
   
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
   SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN NEW YORK TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 680...WW 681...WW 682...
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN ONTARIO IS
   EXPECTED TO CROSS PARTS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERN LAKE ERIE AND MOVE
   INTO PARTS OF NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES.  CLOUDS ARE
   THINNING OVER WRN NY ATTM...AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.  30-40 WNWLY MID
   LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
   MAINTAIN ORGANIZED QLCS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28025.
   
   
   ...WEISS

   SEL3
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
          NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
          LAKE ERIE
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
   PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN NEW YORK TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   UTICA NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 680...WW 681...WW 682...
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN ONTARIO IS
   EXPECTED TO CROSS PARTS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERN LAKE ERIE AND MOVE
   INTO PARTS OF NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES.  CLOUDS ARE
   THINNING OVER WRN NY ATTM...AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.  30-40 WNWLY MID
   LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
   MAINTAIN ORGANIZED QLCS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28025.
   
   
   ...WEISS

   WOUS64 KWNS 091555
   WOU3
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-051-053-055-063-065-
   067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-092300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0683.090809T1600Z-090809T2300Z/
   
   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ALLEGANY             BROOME              CATTARAUGUS         
   CAYUGA               CHAUTAUQUA          CHEMUNG             
   CHENANGO             CORTLAND            ERIE                
   GENESEE              LIVINGSTON          MADISON             
   MONROE               NIAGARA             ONEIDA              
   ONONDAGA             ONTARIO             ORLEANS             
   OSWEGO               SCHUYLER            SENECA              
   STEUBEN              TIOGA               TOMPKINS            
   WAYNE                WYOMING             YATES               
   
   
   PAC015-023-031-039-047-049-053-065-083-105-115-117-121-123-
   092300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0683.090809T1600Z-090809T2300Z/
   
   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BRADFORD             CAMERON             CLARION             
   CRAWFORD             ELK                 ERIE                
   FOREST               JEFFERSON           MCKEAN              
   POTTER               SUSQUEHANNA         TIOGA               
   VENANGO              WARREN              
   
   
   LEZ020-040-041-061-149-169-LOZ042-043-044-062-063-064-092300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0683.090809T1600Z-090809T2300Z/
   
   CW 
   
   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
   
   BUFFALO HARBOR AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER 
   
   RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 
   
   DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 
   
   RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY 
   
   CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN
   BORDER 
   
   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 
   
   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...BGM...
   
   
   

   SAW3 
   WW 683 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 091600Z - 092300Z
   AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   35WSW JHW/JAMESTOWN NY/ - 25SSE UCA/UTICA NY/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /19ESE ERI - 46N HNK/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
   
   LAT...LON 42907987 43757519 41867519 41007987
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU3.
   

Watch 683 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 683

VALID 092035Z - 092140Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FKL TO BFD
TO 45 NW IPT TO 30 N IPT TO 35 NW AVP.

..SCHNEIDER..08/09/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 683 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

PAC023-031-047-053-065-083-105-117-121-123-092140-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMERON 	     CLARION		 ELK		     
FOREST		     JEFFERSON		 MCKEAN 	     
POTTER		     TIOGA		 VENANGO	     
WARREN		     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 683

VALID 091935Z - 092040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N FKL TO
20 WSW JHW TO 15 SW ELM TO 10 SSE ITH TO 35 SSE SYR TO 25 SSE UCA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841

..SCHNEIDER..08/09/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 683 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC007-015-017-053-107-092040-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOME		     CHEMUNG		 CHENANGO	     
MADISON 	     TIOGA		 
$$


PAC015-023-031-047-053-065-083-105-115-117-121-123-092040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLARION	     
ELK		     FOREST		 JEFFERSON	     
MCKEAN		     POTTER		 SUSQUEHANNA	     
TIOGA		     VENANGO		 WARREN 	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 683

VALID 091745Z - 091840Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ERI
TO 15 W BUF TO 30 E BUF TO 25 ENE ROC TO 40 NE ROC.

..SCHNEIDER..08/09/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 683 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-051-053-065-067-069-075-
097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-091840-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CORTLAND		 ERIE		     
LIVINGSTON	     MADISON		 ONEIDA 	     
ONONDAGA	     ONTARIO		 OSWEGO 	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
TIOGA		     TOMPKINS		 WAYNE		     
WYOMING 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-031-039-047-049-053-065-083-105-115-117-121-123-
091840-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLARION	     
CRAWFORD	     ELK		 ERIE		     
FOREST		     JEFFERSON		 MCKEAN 	     
POTTER		     SUSQUEHANNA	 TIOGA		     
VENANGO 	     WARREN		 
$$


LEZ040-041-061-149-169-LOZ044-064-091840-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY 

CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN
BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.