Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE INTO A SMALL PART OF EASTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 20 MILES NORTH OF BOWLING GREEN
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6. WATCH NUMBER 6 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 320 PM CST.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK...HOWEVER DEEP ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WELL INTO THE EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A RISK OF SUPERCELLS...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SHEAR...A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 7 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 212120Z - 220300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60W CHA/CHATTANOOGA TN/ - 20N BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /55W GQO - 20N BWG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
REPLACES WW 6..AL AR KY MO MS TN
LAT...LON 35028776 37258797 37258487 35028476
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 7 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 7
VALID 220235Z - 220300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CHA TO
30 WSW CSV TO 20 ESE CSV.
WW 7 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 49.
..GUYER..01/22/10
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC007-011-065-107-115-121-139-143-153-220300-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE BRADLEY HAMILTON
MCMINN MARION MEIGS
POLK RHEA SEQUATCHIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 7
VALID 220140Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W CHA TO
25 E BWG TO 40 W LOZ.
..GUYER..01/22/10
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC007-011-015-027-031-035-041-049-061-065-087-107-111-115-121-
133-137-139-141-143-153-159-169-175-177-185-220240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE BRADLEY CANNON
CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND
DEKALB FENTRESS GRUNDY
HAMILTON JACKSON MCMINN
MACON MARION MEIGS
OVERTON PICKETT POLK
PUTNAM RHEA SEQUATCHIE
SMITH TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 7
VALID 212345Z - 220040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HSV
TO 30 ENE CKV TO 45 W LOZ.
..GUYER..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC003-007-011-015-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-061-065-087-103-
107-111-115-117-121-127-133-137-139-141-143-147-149-153-159-165-
169-175-177-185-187-189-220040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLEDSOE BRADLEY
CANNON CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DEKALB
FENTRESS FRANKLIN GRUNDY
HAMILTON JACKSON LINCOLN
MCMINN MACON MARION
MARSHALL MEIGS MOORE
OVERTON PICKETT POLK
PUTNAM RHEA ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SEQUATCHIE SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WHITE WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.