Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 67
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF SYRACUSE NEW YORK TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF STATE COLLEGE
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...WW 66...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SRN PA AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD AT 50-60 MPH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE FAST MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE COMBINED WITH 50-60 KT MEAN SWLY FLOW ALOFT... PERPENDICULAR TO
THE THUNDERSTORM LINE...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21050.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 67 SEVERE TSTM NY PA 082050Z - 090200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
55ESE SYR/SYRACUSE NY/ - 25WSW UNV/STATE COLLEGE PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM EITHER SIDE /46N HNK - 19SW PSB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21050.
LAT...LON 41907429 39817748 41597911 43707597
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 67 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 67
VALID 090130Z - 090240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MSV
TO 30 NE BGM TO 35 SE UCA.
..STOPPKOTTE..04/09/10
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC025-077-105-090240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 67
VALID 090040Z - 090140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E AVP TO
15 S ITH TO 10 SSE UCA.
..STOPPKOTTE..04/09/10
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-017-025-077-105-090140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CHENANGO DELAWARE
OTSEGO SULLIVAN
$$
PAC103-115-127-090140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 67
VALID 082330Z - 090040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CXY TO
35 SW ELM TO 40 W SYR.
..STOPPKOTTE..04/08/10
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-011-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-075-077-097-099-105-107-
109-090040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG
CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE
MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA
OSWEGO OTSEGO SCHUYLER
SENECA SULLIVAN TIOGA
TOMPKINS
$$
PAC015-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-113-115-117-127-131-
090040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA
LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR
NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL
SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA
WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 67
VALID 082230Z - 082340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW CXY TO
40 NW IPT TO 10 WNW BFD.
..STOPPKOTTE..04/08/10
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-025-051-053-065-067-069-075-077-097-
099-101-105-107-109-117-123-082340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND
DELAWARE LIVINGSTON MADISON
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
OSWEGO OTSEGO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
YATES
$$
PAC015-037-043-069-071-075-079-081-093-097-103-105-107-109-113-
115-117-119-127-131-133-082340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD COLUMBIA DAUPHIN
LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON
LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR
NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE POTTER
SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION
WAYNE WYOMING YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 67
VALID 082140Z - 082240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..STOPPKOTTE..04/08/10
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-025-051-053-065-067-069-075-077-097-
099-101-105-107-109-117-123-082240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND
DELAWARE LIVINGSTON MADISON
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
OSWEGO OTSEGO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
YATES
$$
PAC001-013-015-023-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-069-071-
075-079-081-087-093-097-099-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-119-127-
131-133-082240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLAIR BRADFORD
CAMERON CENTRE CLINTON
COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER
LEBANON LUZERNE LYCOMING
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY PIKE POTTER
SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION
WAYNE WYOMING YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.