Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 855 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF HURON SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTHERN NEB ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 203 TORNADO NE SD 230155Z - 230700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40WSW ONL/ONEILL NE/ - 10N HON/HURON SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /33SE ANW - 54S ABR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 42240058 44529944 44529701 42249823
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 203 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 203
VALID 230340Z - 230440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ANW
TO 15 SSE 9V9 TO 35 WNW HON.
..GOSS..05/23/10
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC015-089-103-149-230440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD HOLT KEYA PAHA
ROCK
$$
SDC003-005-015-023-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-097-111-230440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BRULE
CHARLES MIX DAVISON DOUGLAS
GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON
JERAULD KINGSBURY MINER
SANBORN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.