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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 555 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLER
TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER THE DALLAS-FT. WORTH AREA WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT INVOF
COLD FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD BUT 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...AS STORMS MATURE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH EWD EXTENT. AS SUCH...INITIAL HAZARDS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN INCREASED TORNADO
THREAT AFTER 01/00Z.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 257 TORNADO AR OK TX 302255Z - 010700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10SW TYR/TYLER TX/ - 25NNW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /40WSW GGG - 58NNW TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 32249672 34389580 34389333 32249431
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 257 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 257
VALID 010635Z - 010700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE TYR
TO 35 SSE PRX TO DEQ TO 40 NE DEQ.
WW 257 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010700Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 677.
..EDWARDS..05/01/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-081-091-133-010700-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC089-010700-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-423-449-459-499-010700-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 257
VALID 010535Z - 010640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S TYR TO
30 N TYR TO 30 SSE PRX TO 20 ESE PRX TO 30 SW DEQ TO 30 NE DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 675.
..EDWARDS..05/01/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-081-091-133-010640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC089-010640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-423-449-459-499-010640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 257
VALID 010445Z - 010540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW TYR TO
15 ESE PRX TO 25 NNE DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 675.
..PETERS..05/01/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-081-091-133-010540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC089-010540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-423-449-459-499-010540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 257
VALID 010340Z - 010440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW TYR TO
15 ESE PRX TO 25 NNE DEQ.
..PETERS..05/01/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-081-091-133-010440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC089-010440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-423-449-459-499-010440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 257
VALID 010235Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW TYR TO
15 ESE PRX TO 25 NNE DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 674.
..PETERS..05/01/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-081-091-133-010340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC089-010340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-423-449-459-499-010340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 257
VALID 010125Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DUA
TO 45 WNW DEQ.
..GRAMS..05/01/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-081-091-133-010240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC023-089-127-010240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-183-203-213-223-231-257-277-315-343-
379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-010240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 257
VALID 010030Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUA
TO 40 SSE MLC.
..GRAMS..05/01/11
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-081-091-133-010140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LITTLE RIVER
MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC023-089-127-010140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-183-203-213-223-231-257-277-315-343-
379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-010140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.