Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF WESTERN MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 135
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF CUT BANK MONTANA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HELENA MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 541...WW 542...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH MLCAPES
AOA 1000 J/KG... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE STORMS AS THEY FORM
CLUSTERS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 543 SEVERE TSTM MT 231855Z - 240200Z
AXIS..135 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50ENE CTB/CUT BANK MT/ - 40SSE HLN/HELENA MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 115NM E/W /67WNW HVR - 35SSE HLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 48840838 46020887 46021450 48841433
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 543 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 543
VALID 240140Z - 240200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BIL TO
35 ENE LWT TO 45 ESE HVR TO 35 NNE HVR.
WW 543 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z.
..GUYER..06/24/11
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-027-041-240200-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE FERGUS HILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 543
VALID 240040Z - 240140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE 3HT
TO 20 N LWT TO 30 SSW HVR TO 50 NW HVR.
..GUYER..06/24/11
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-027-041-240140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE FERGUS HILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 543
VALID 232135Z - 232240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/23/11
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-007-013-015-023-027-029-035-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-
059-063-073-077-081-099-101-232240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FERGUS
FLATHEAD GLACIER GRANITE
HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN
LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY
MEAGHER MISSOULA PONDERA
POWELL RAVALLI TETON
TOOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 543
VALID 232025Z - 232140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..06/23/11
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-007-013-015-023-027-029-035-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-
059-063-073-077-081-099-101-232140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FERGUS
FLATHEAD GLACIER GRANITE
HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN
LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY
MEAGHER MISSOULA PONDERA
POWELL RAVALLI TETON
TOOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.