Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF CHANUTE
KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 870...
DISCUSSION...NRN END OF N CNTRL OK SQLN WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
EWD THROUGH LATE TNGT...WHILE STORMS MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NNE ALONG IT.
LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT STRENGTHENING LOW LVL
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH DIURNAL CYCLE AND WITH APPROACH OF
NM UPR VORT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLD
TORNADOES AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS REGION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 871 TORNADO KS OK 072340Z - 080700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25N CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 20W TUL/TULSA OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /49WSW BUM - 22W TUL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT...LON 38029437 36189516 36189730 38029658
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 871 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 871
VALID 080635Z - 080700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW JLN
TO 30 WSW JLN TO 50 ENE CNU.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 871 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
08/07Z.
..KERR..11/08/11
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 871
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-080700-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 871
VALID 080535Z - 080640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JLN
TO 30 WSW JLN TO 30 NE CNU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297
..DIAL..11/08/11
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 871
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-080640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 871
VALID 080440Z - 080540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JLN TO
30 WSW JLN TO 30 NNE CNU.
..DIAL..11/08/11
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 871
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-080540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 871
VALID 080255Z - 080340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PNC
TO 45 NE CNU.
..ROGERS..11/08/11
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 871
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-099-125-133-080340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 871
VALID 080145Z - 080240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PNC TO
40 N BVO TO 35 E EMP.
..ROGERS..11/08/11
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 871
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-205-207-080240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
$$
OKC035-105-113-115-117-147-080240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG NOWATA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 871
VALID 080040Z - 080140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..11/08/11
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 871
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-080140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD
ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON
WOODSON
$$
OKC035-105-113-115-117-147-080140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG NOWATA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.