Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LAMAR COLORADO TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH FROM NE NM INTO
SE CO...AND EWD INTO THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE. INITIALLY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESPOND LATER THIS EVENING TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NWWD. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET...THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE
REVISITED LATER THIS EVENING...WHEN A WATCH REPLACEMENT/UPGRADE
COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26015.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 192 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 262045Z - 270300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NNW LAA/LAMAR CO/ - 25WSW PVW/PLAINVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /6NW LAA - 22NNW LBB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26015.
LAT...LON 38270186 34020125 34020300 38270370
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 192 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 192
VALID 262300Z - 270040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..04/26/12
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 192
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-270040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS
$$
KSC075-129-187-270040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAMILTON MORTON STANTON
$$
NMC059-270040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-270040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-111-117-153-189-195-205-233-279-341-359-
369-375-381-421-437-270040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO DALLAM
DEAF SMITH FLOYD HALE
HANSFORD HARTLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB MOORE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
SHERMAN SWISHER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 192
VALID 262140Z - 262240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..04/26/12
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 192
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-262240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS
$$
KSC075-129-187-262240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAMILTON MORTON STANTON
$$
NMC059-262240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-262240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-111-117-153-189-195-205-233-279-341-359-
369-375-381-421-437-262240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO DALLAM
DEAF SMITH FLOYD HALE
HANSFORD HARTLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB MOORE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
SHERMAN SWISHER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.