Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SALEM ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602...
DISCUSSION...WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
STRENGTH ALONG EXISTING SQLN NOW EXTENDING FROM E OF ST LOUIS SSW
INTO SE MO. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN
MOIST/CONFLUENT WARM SECTOR OVER SRN IL...AND POSSIBLY IN WAKE OF
SQLN IN SE MO. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE FURTHERED IN TIME BY APPARENT
VORT MAX MOVING AROUND SRN QUADRANT OF REMNANT CIRCULATION WITH
FORMER HRCN ISAAC /ATTM CENTERED OVER CNTRL MO/.
WARM MID-LVL TEMPS MAY SOMEWHAT MITIGATE STORM STRENGTH AND/OR DELAY
MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN CURRENT INTENSITY
TRENDS...AVAILABILITY OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND PRESENCE OF
AMPLE DEEP SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LOW-LVL
MESOS...SETUP MAY YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SMALL BOWS
WITH DMGG WIND THROUGH THIS EVE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 603 TORNADO IL KY MO 011820Z - 020300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNE SLO/SALEM IL/ - 35ESE POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /25SSE DEC - 43NW DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
LAT...LON 39388736 36568872 36569105 39388979
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 603 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 603
VALID 020130Z - 020240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PAH TO
35 SE MVN TO 40 NNW EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857
..DIAL..09/02/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC059-069-185-020240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GALLATIN HARDIN WABASH
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-020240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC033-035-047-055-059-101-107-139-143-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-020240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS HENDERSON
HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LYON
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 603
VALID 020030Z - 020140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S POF TO
15 SE MDH TO 25 E SLO TO 10 SE MTO.
..DIAL..09/02/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193-
020140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
SALINE UNION WABASH
WAYNE WHITE
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-020140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
TRIGG
$$
MOC133-143-201-020140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 603
VALID 012250Z - 012340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW POF
TO 15 N MDH TO 20 ENE SLO TO 10 SSW MTO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854
..DIAL..09/01/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-
191-193-199-012340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
SALINE UNION WABASH
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-139-145-012340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-133-143-201-207-012340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT
STODDARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 603
VALID 012040Z - 012140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW POF TO
30 E FAM TO 20 WSW SLO TO 35 NNE SLO TO 30 S DEC.
..SPC..09/01/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-051-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-121-127-145-151-153-
165-181-185-189-191-193-199-012140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON MARION MASSAC
PERRY POPE PULASKI
SALINE UNION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-139-145-012140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-123-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-012140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 603
VALID 011930Z - 012040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW FAM
TO 20 SSE BLV TO 25 NE BLV TO 35 ENE ALN TO 35 SSE SPI.
..SPC..09/01/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-027-047-051-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-121-127-135-
145-151-153-157-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-012040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CLINTON
EDWARDS FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MARION MASSAC MONTGOMERY
PERRY POPE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SALINE UNION
WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-139-145-012040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-093-123-133-143-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-
012040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER IRON MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.