Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602...WW 603...WW 604...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS MARKING SRN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH EX-HRCN
ISSAC. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY
NARROWING CORRIDOR OF DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING E FROM OK.
THE STORMS THEREFORE INITIALLY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...WITH DMGG WIND THE MAIN SVR THREAT. WITH
TIME...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY TAP RICHER...MORE
STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN AR/W TN. THIS MAY
FOSTER AN INCREASING RISK FOR LOW-LVL MESOS/TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUING RISK FOR DMGG WIND WITH SMALL BOWS/LEWPS IN EVENTUAL BKN
SQLN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 605 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 012050Z - 020400Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 40ESE LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /35NNW DYR - 32ESE LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 36528850 34499044 34499272 36529084
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 605 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 605
VALID 020335Z - 020400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MKL TO
15 NNE DYR TO 40 NNE DYR.
WW 605 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020400Z.
..DIAL..09/02/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC033-045-053-075-183-020400-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER GIBSON
HAYWOOD WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 605
VALID 020245Z - 020340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MEM
TO 20 SSW DYR TO 25 WNW DYR TO 35 NNW DYR.
..DIAL..09/02/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC033-020340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO
$$
TNC033-045-053-075-095-131-157-183-020340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER GIBSON
HAYWOOD LAKE OBION
SHELBY WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 605
VALID 020130Z - 020240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE PBF
TO 40 SSW JBR TO 15 SSW BVX.
..DIAL..09/02/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-023-031-035-037-055-063-067-075-077-093-111-121-123-135-
020240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEBURNE CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE
INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SHARP
$$
MSC033-020240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO
$$
MOC069-155-020240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-020240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER GIBSON
HAYWOOD LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 605
VALID 012255Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..09/01/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-021-023-031-035-037-045-053-055-063-067-069-075-077-085-
093-095-105-107-111-117-119-121-123-125-135-145-147-012340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLAY CLEBURNE
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
FAULKNER GRANT GREENE
INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAWRENCE LEE LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE PERRY
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SALINE SHARP WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
MSC033-143-012340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-012340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-012340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.