Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 940 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF
INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQLN IN S CNTRL IL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
GENERALLY E OR ESE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IL AND INTO PARTS OF
IND/KY LATER TODAY. ACTIVITY IS...IN PART...LIKELY SUPPORTED BY AN
IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM JET /EXTENDING ROUGHLY W-E THROUGH CNTRL
PARTS OF KS-MO/. THE SQLN MAY BE ENHANCED LATER THIS MORNING BY
STRONG SFC HEATING AND LIGHT SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW TO ITS EAST. WHILE
AREA WIND PROFILES APPEAR SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED ATTM...WIND FIELD
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD-PROPAGATION BY MIDDAY.
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE...SETUP MAY YIELD BOTH DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 619 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 051440Z - 052200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45N IND/INDIANAPOLIS IN/ - 40WSW EVV/EVANSVILLE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /34N IND - 22WSW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 40368456 37798655 37798986 40368798
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 619 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 619
VALID 052025Z - 052140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE OWB TO
40 E OWB TO 15 NW SDF TO 35 W LUK.
..JEWELL..09/05/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC061-143-052140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARRISON SCOTT
$$
KYC027-163-052140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE MEADE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 619
VALID 051735Z - 051840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BLV TO
35 ENE SLO TO 15 NW BMG TO 30 SW MIE TO 30 SSE FWA.
..JEWELL..09/05/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC025-033-047-055-059-065-077-081-101-145-159-165-185-189-191-
193-199-051840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
PERRY RICHLAND SALINE
WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
INC005-013-025-027-031-035-037-051-055-059-061-065-071-079-081-
083-093-095-101-105-117-119-123-125-129-135-139-143-145-147-163-
173-175-051840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CRAWFORD
DAVIESS DECATUR DELAWARE
DUBOIS GIBSON GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON HENRY
JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON
KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON
MARTIN MONROE ORANGE
OWEN PERRY PIKE
POSEY RANDOLPH RUSH
SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON
$$
KYC027-059-091-101-163-225-051840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE DAVIESS HANCOCK
HENDERSON MEADE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 619
VALID 051530Z - 051640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..09/05/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-047-049-051-055-059-065-077-
079-081-101-121-139-145-159-163-165-173-185-189-191-193-199-
051640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLARK CLAY
CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD
CUMBERLAND EDGAR EDWARDS
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
MARION MOULTRIE PERRY
RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE
SHELBY WABASH WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
INC005-011-013-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-045-051-055-057-059-
061-063-065-067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-117-
119-121-123-125-129-133-135-139-143-145-147-153-159-163-165-167-
173-175-051640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN
CLAY CLINTON CRAWFORD
DAVIESS DECATUR DELAWARE
DUBOIS FOUNTAIN GIBSON
GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARRISON HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD JACKSON JENNINGS
JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE
MADISON MARION MARTIN
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
ORANGE OWEN PARKE
PERRY PIKE POSEY
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RUSH
SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER
SULLIVAN TIPTON VANDERBURGH
VERMILLION VIGO WARRICK
WASHINGTON
$$
KYC027-059-091-101-163-225-051640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE DAVIESS HANCOCK
HENDERSON MEADE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.