Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK
WESTERN VERMONT
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON VERMONT TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BUFFALO NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 625...
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALONG LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER UPSTATE NY AS SFC
HEATING CONTINUES OVER REGION. MODERATE...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE LAKES SUGGESTS THAT UPDRAFTS MAY REMAIN ON OR
NEAR THE BOUNDARIES FOR AN APPRECIABLE LENGTH OF TIME...ENHANCING
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 626 SEVERE TSTM NY VT LO 061850Z - 070100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25ESE BTV/BURLINGTON VT/ - 20WSW BUF/BUFFALO NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /8NW MPV - 21WSW BUF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 43457268 41957908 43687908 45207268
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 626 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 626
VALID 062225Z - 062340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW ELM
TO 10 ESE SYR TO 40 SSW SLK TO 25 SW GFL.
..LEITMAN..09/06/12
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-015-017-023-041-043-053-065-077-097-099-101-107-109-
062340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO
CORTLAND HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON ONEIDA OTSEGO
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 626
VALID 062030Z - 062140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BUF TO
15 S ROC TO 40 ESE ROC TO 30 SSW ART TO 40 NNW ART.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
..HURLBUT..09/06/12
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-007-009-011-015-017-019-023-031-033-041-043-051-053-065-
067-069-077-097-099-101-107-109-121-123-062140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS
CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO
CLINTON CORTLAND ESSEX
FRANKLIN HAMILTON HERKIMER
LIVINGSTON MADISON ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO OTSEGO
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WYOMING
YATES
$$
VTC001-007-011-013-015-019-021-023-062140-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON CHITTENDEN FRANKLIN
GRAND ISLE LAMOILLE ORLEANS
RUTLAND WASHINGTON
$$
LOZ045-SLZ022-024-062140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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