Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES EAST OF LIBERAL KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 625...WW 626...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG
BROKEN LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS IN WRN KS/S CNTRL NEB...WHERE
35-40 KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL FOSTER STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.
GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES
BENEATH DEEP EML...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH HIGH WIND AND HAIL THROUGH
MID EVE. THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO BY LATE
EVE AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED ESE MOVEMENT OF
POTENT MT UPR TROUGH...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 627 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 062100Z - 070400Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NE GRI/GRAND ISLAND NE/ - 25E LBL/LIBERAL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /19SE OBH - 22E LBL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 41119658 37029906 37020197 41119965
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 627 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 627
VALID 070320Z - 070440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GAG TO
45 WSW RSL TO 30 NW HUT.
..GUYER..09/07/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-033-047-097-145-151-165-185-070440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER COMANCHE EDWARDS
KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT
RUSH STAFFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 627
VALID 070045Z - 070140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW EHA TO
30 NNW EAR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907
..GUYER..09/07/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-029-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-
071-081-083-089-093-097-101-105-109-113-119-123-129-135-137-141-
143-145-147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-
187-189-193-195-199-203-070140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLOUD COMANCHE DECATUR
EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH
FINNEY FORD GOVE
GRAHAM GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KEARNY KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MEADE MITCHELL
MORTON NESS NORTON
OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PHILLIPS PRATT RENO
REPUBLIC RICE ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
SMITH STAFFORD STANTON
STEVENS THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC001-019-035-059-061-065-073-079-081-083-093-099-121-125-129-
137-143-169-181-185-070140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FURNAS
GOSPER HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
PHELPS POLK THAYER
WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 627
VALID 062340Z - 070040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..09/06/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-029-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-
071-081-083-089-093-097-101-105-109-113-119-123-129-135-137-141-
143-145-147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-
187-189-193-195-199-203-070040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLOUD COMANCHE DECATUR
EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH
FINNEY FORD GOVE
GRAHAM GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KEARNY KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MEADE MITCHELL
MORTON NESS NORTON
OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PHILLIPS PRATT RENO
REPUBLIC RICE ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
SMITH STAFFORD STANTON
STEVENS THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC001-019-035-059-061-065-073-079-081-083-093-099-121-125-129-
137-143-169-181-185-070040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FURNAS
GOSPER HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
PHELPS POLK THAYER
WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 627
VALID 062235Z - 062340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..09/06/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-029-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-
071-081-083-089-093-097-101-105-109-113-119-123-129-135-137-141-
143-145-147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-
187-189-193-195-199-203-062340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLOUD COMANCHE DECATUR
EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH
FINNEY FORD GOVE
GRAHAM GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KEARNY KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MEADE MITCHELL
MORTON NESS NORTON
OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PHILLIPS PRATT RENO
REPUBLIC RICE ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
SMITH STAFFORD STANTON
STEVENS THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC001-019-035-059-061-065-073-079-081-083-093-099-121-125-129-
137-143-169-181-185-062340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FURNAS
GOSPER HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
PHELPS POLK THAYER
WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.