Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 515 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 629...WW 630...WW 631...
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE LINES AND CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND NORTHERN AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. A HOT/MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF BOWING LINE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 632 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 072215Z - 080500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55NE PAH/PADUCAH KY/ - 30NNW RUE/RUSSELLVILLE AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /23SW PXV - 50ENE FSM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30035.
LAT...LON 36618805 34639329 36659329 38638805
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 632 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 632
VALID 080335Z - 080440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DYR
TO 50 SW EVV.
..GUYER..09/08/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-035-037-041-053-069-079-085-093-095-111-117-123-147-
080440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CRITTENDEN CROSS
DESHA GRANT JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE POINSETT PRAIRIE
ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
KYC033-035-047-059-083-105-107-143-149-157-177-219-221-233-
080440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
DAVIESS GRAVES HICKMAN
HOPKINS LYON MCLEAN
MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD
TRIGG WEBSTER
$$
TNC033-045-053-075-097-157-167-183-080440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER GIBSON
HAYWOOD LAUDERDALE SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 632
VALID 080230Z - 080340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW JBR
TO 30 W EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
..GUYER..09/08/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-031-035-037-041-045-051-053-055-059-067-069-079-085-093-
095-111-117-119-123-125-145-147-080340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DESHA FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT GREENE
HOT SPRING JACKSON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-193-080340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
PULASKI SALINE WHITE
$$
INC125-129-147-163-173-080340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIKE POSEY SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-080340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC069-133-143-155-080340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-080340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER GIBSON
HAYWOOD LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 632
VALID 080025Z - 080140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..09/08/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-021-023-029-031-045-049-055-063-065-067-071-075-089-
101-111-115-121-129-135-137-141-145-147-080140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLAY
CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
FAULKNER FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION
NEWTON POINSETT POPE
RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-080140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-080140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-080140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-080140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
TNC095-131-080140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OBION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 632
VALID 080025Z - 080140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..09/08/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-021-023-029-031-045-049-055-063-065-067-071-075-089-
101-111-115-121-129-135-137-141-145-147-080140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLAY
CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
FAULKNER FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION
NEWTON POINSETT POPE
RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-080140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-080140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-080140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-080140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
TNC095-131-080140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OBION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 632
VALID 072330Z - 080040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..09/07/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-021-023-029-031-045-049-055-063-065-067-071-075-089-
101-111-115-121-129-135-137-141-145-147-080040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLAY
CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
FAULKNER FULTON GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION
NEWTON POINSETT POPE
RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-080040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-145-080040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-080040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
TNC095-131-080040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OBION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.