Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 691...WW 692...
DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH AFTN...N OF SFC
WARM FRONT OVER SE TX AND SRN LA. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT TSTM
ORGANIZATION.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 693 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 251455Z - 252200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SW GGG/LONGVIEW TX/ - 55E MLU/MONROE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /44SW GGG - 46W JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 32749531 33389108 31649108 31009531
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 693 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 693
VALID 252130Z - 252200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HEZ
TO 45 SSW GLH TO 25 S GLH.
WW 693 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 252200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
..COHEN..12/25/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC055-252200-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISSAQUENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 693
VALID 252125Z - 252240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HEZ
TO 45 SSW GLH TO 25 S GLH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
..COHEN..12/25/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC055-252240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISSAQUENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 693
VALID 252030Z - 252140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW HEZ TO
25 S GLH.
..COHEN..12/25/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC055-252140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISSAQUENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 693
VALID 251930Z - 252040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW ESF TO
20 SSE LLQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212
..COHEN..12/25/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-252040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC021-035-041-059-067-083-111-123-252040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
LA SALLE MOREHOUSE RICHLAND
UNION WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC055-252040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISSAQUENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 693
VALID 251840Z - 251940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N POE TO
25 E ELD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212
..COHEN..12/25/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-251940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
123-127-251940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC055-251940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISSAQUENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 693
VALID 251740Z - 251840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LFK
TO 35 WNW IER TO 35 SSE TXK.
..COHEN..12/25/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-139-251840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT UNION
$$
LAC013-015-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-
069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-251840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL
CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA
DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC055-251840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISSAQUENA
$$
TXC403-251840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SABINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 693
VALID 251625Z - 251740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..12/25/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-139-251740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-
067-069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-251740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC055-251740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ISSAQUENA
$$
TXC005-073-183-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-251740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON MARION NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.