WWUS20 KWNS 221756
SEL3
SPC WW 221756
AZZ000-NMZ000-230200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN ARIZONA
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL
  800 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FARMINGTON NEW MEXICO TO 80 MILES WEST OF TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES
NEW MEXICO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 532...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVE OVER MUCH
OF WW AREA AS SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WITH
APPROACHING UPR TROUGH FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. WITH 50+ KT
MID-LVL JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH...AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL.
FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN
NM...GIVEN EXPECTED DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND QUASI-LINEAR
FORCING. A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY IN ERN
AZ/FAR WRN NM...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT AND A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY FORM BENEATH MID-LVL
MOIST AXIS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...CORFIDI