Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF SOUTH HILL
VIRGINIA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 22. WATCH NUMBER 22 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 820 PM EST. CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...
DISCUSSION...NNE/SSW PRE-FRONTAL SQLN THROUGH CNTRL NC EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE ENE THROUGH EARLY THU AS TN VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
NE TOWARD REGION. STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM FROM
TROUGH MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK BUOYANCY TO MAINTAIN FORCED
CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS THE NC/VA PIEDMONT AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE ADJACENT CSTL PLN. AREA VWP DATA SHOW VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES
ACROSS REGION...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR /WITH 850 MB
FLOW UP TO 80 KTS/. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS
POSING A RISK FOR SPORADIC DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWP CRESTS AND/OR LINE BREAKS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22060.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 25 TORNADO NC SC VA 310120Z - 310700Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N AVC/SOUTH HILL VA/ - 50SSW FLO/FLORENCE SC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /35W RIC - 37N CHS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22060.
REPLACES WW 22..NC VA
LAT...LON 37477686 33507891 33508118 37477923
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 25 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 25
VALID 310650Z - 310700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE RZZ TO
15 E RIC.
WW 25 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 310700Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 110.
..PETERS..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC019-065-083-129-131-141-310700-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK EDGECOMBE HALIFAX
NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PENDER
$$
VAC036-127-149-175-183-620-670-310700-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLES CITY NEW KENT PRINCE GEORGE
SOUTHAMPTON SUSSEX
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HOPEWELL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 25
VALID 310535Z - 310640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CRE
TO 25 ENE RDU TO 35 W RIC.
..GUYER..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC017-019-047-051-065-069-083-101-127-129-131-141-163-185-191-
195-310640-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS
CUMBERLAND EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH
NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PENDER
SAMPSON WARREN WAYNE
WILSON
$$
SCC043-051-310640-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGETOWN HORRY
$$
VAC007-025-036-041-053-081-087-127-135-145-149-175-183-570-595-
620-670-730-760-310640-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMELIA BRUNSWICK CHARLES CITY
CHESTERFIELD DINWIDDIE GREENSVILLE
HENRICO NEW KENT NOTTOWAY
POWHATAN PRINCE GEORGE SOUTHAMPTON
SUSSEX
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA FRANKLIN
HOPEWELL PETERSBURG RICHMOND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 25
VALID 310240Z - 310340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-007-017-019-033-037-047-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-
083-085-093-101-105-123-125-127-129-131-135-141-145-151-153-155-
157-163-165-167-169-181-183-185-191-195-310340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON BLADEN
BRUNSWICK CASWELL CHATHAM
COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH
FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GUILFORD
HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE
JOHNSTON LEE MONTGOMERY
MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER
NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PENDER
PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND
ROBESON ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON
SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WAYNE WILSON
$$
SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-310340-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DARLINGTON DILLON FLORENCE
GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION
MARLBORO WILLIAMSBURG
$$
VAC007-011-025-029-031-036-037-041-049-053-081-083-087-089-111-
117-127-135-143-145-147-149-175-183-570-590-595-620-670-680-690-
730-760-310340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMELIA APPOMATTOX BRUNSWICK
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLES CITY
CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND
DINWIDDIE GREENSVILLE HALIFAX
HENRICO HENRY LUNENBURG
MECKLENBURG NEW KENT NOTTOWAY
PITTSYLVANIA POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD
PRINCE GEORGE SOUTHAMPTON SUSSEX
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
COLONIAL HEIGHTS DANVILLE EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HOPEWELL LYNCHBURG
MARTINSVILLE PETERSBURG RICHMOND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.