Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...BAND OF TSTMS INVOF SFC COLD FRONT IS INCREASING
GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AS FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGES
UPON PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DESTABILIZED BY
NARROW CORRIDOR OF PREFRONTAL SFC DIABATIC HEATING. FAVORABLE DEEP
SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE FCST FOR CONTINUED TSTM ORGANIZATION AND SVR
POTENTIAL INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. QUASI-LINEAR MODE SHOULD
PREDOMINATE WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS OFFERING THREAT OF DAMAGING
GUSTS AND MRGL HAIL. ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM WITHIN
OR AHEAD OF LINE WILL POSE RISK OF LARGER HAIL AND A TORNADO...BUT
THIS THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 49 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 091950Z - 100500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40S BWD/BROWNWOOD TX/ - 35NNE ADM/ARDMORE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /58NE JCT - 38NNE ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT...LON 31210012 34759801 34759555 31219776
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 49 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #8 ON WW 49
VALID 100435Z - 100500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W TPL TO
30 N ACT.
THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 49 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 10/05Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 265.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-085-099-113-147-251-267-281-307-319-327-411-435-100500-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL
DALLAS FANNIN JOHNSON
KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD SAN SABA
SUTTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 49
VALID 100340Z - 100440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SJT
TO 35 W ACT TO 30 SSE GYI.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-085-099-113-121-147-181-193-251-267-281-307-319-327-333-
411-435-439-100440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON JOHNSON
KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
SAN SABA SUTTON TARRANT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 49
VALID 100235Z - 100340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SJT
TO 10 S SEP TO 25 NNW FTW TO 15 ESE MLC.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-029-100340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN COAL
$$
TXC035-085-099-113-121-147-181-193-221-251-267-281-307-319-327-
333-367-411-425-435-439-100340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HOOD
JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL SUTTON TARRANT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 49
VALID 100145Z - 100240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SJT
TO 25 SW SEP TO 20 NE MWL TO 25 WSW MLC.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-029-100240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN COAL
$$
TXC035-049-059-083-085-093-097-099-113-121-143-147-181-193-221-
251-267-281-307-319-327-333-367-411-425-435-439-497-100240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DENTON ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HOOD
JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL SUTTON TARRANT
WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 49
VALID 100055Z - 100140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SJT
TO 35 W SEP TO 40 NNW FTW TO 40 NE ADM.
..KERR..03/10/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-029-069-095-123-100140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN COAL
JOHNSTON MARSHALL PONTOTOC
$$
TXC035-049-059-083-085-093-097-099-113-121-143-147-181-193-221-
251-267-281-307-319-327-333-367-411-425-435-439-497-100140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DENTON ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HOOD
JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL SUTTON TARRANT
WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 49
VALID 092345Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S ABI TO
45 WNW SEP TO 35 NNW ADM.
..KERR..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-100040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL GARVIN JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
$$
TXC035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-143-147-181-193-
221-237-251-307-333-337-363-367-411-425-429-439-497-503-
100040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS
DENTON EASTLAND ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON
HOOD JACK JOHNSON
MCCULLOCH MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 49
VALID 092230Z - 092340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-092340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL GARVIN JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
$$
TXC035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-143-147-181-193-
221-237-251-307-333-337-363-367-411-425-429-439-497-503-
092340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS
DENTON EASTLAND ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON
HOOD JACK JOHNSON
MCCULLOCH MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 49
VALID 092150Z - 092240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 261
..DIAL..03/09/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-049-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-092240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL GARVIN JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
$$
TXC035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-143-147-181-193-
221-237-251-307-333-337-363-367-411-425-429-439-497-503-
092240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS
DENTON EASTLAND ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON
HOOD JACK JOHNSON
MCCULLOCH MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.