Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS EXPECTED WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF MONETT MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW
182...WW 183...WW 184...WW 185...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINES OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY ENE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MO THIS EVE. THESE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERAL LONG SWATHS OF DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL...IN ADDITION
TO A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS NOW FORMING ALONG THE KS-MO BORDER
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND EXPAND NWD AS
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TOWARD THE SZL/COU/JEF AREAS LATER THIS EVE.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE BOW NOW CROSSING THE ERN KS
FLINT HILLS SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES INTO WRN MO
AND THE MKC AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH 70 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
SE QUADRANT OF NEB UPR LOW..
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 186 TORNADO IL KS MO 192325Z - 200600Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NE IRK/KIRKSVILLE MO/ - 25S UMN/MONETT MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /43NE IRK - 19NNE RZC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 40599006 36509219 36509561 40599369
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 186 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 186
VALID 200540Z - 200640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CNU
TO 20 ESE SZL TO 30 E VIH.
..PETERS..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-200640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-125-
131-141-145-167-169-185-209-217-225-229-200640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS GREENE
HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
STONE VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 186
VALID 200435Z - 200540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CNU
TO 5 SSW SZL TO 30 WSW IRK TO 40 WSW BRL.
..SMITH..05/20/13
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-013-149-200540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
PIKE
$$
KSC011-021-037-200540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC007-009-011-015-019-027-029-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-073-
077-083-085-089-097-103-105-109-111-113-115-119-121-125-127-131-
135-137-139-141-145-151-159-163-167-169-173-175-185-195-205-209-
217-219-225-229-200540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BARRY BARTON
BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY
CAMDEN CEDAR CHARITON
CHRISTIAN COLE COOPER
DADE DALLAS GASCONADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
HOWARD JASPER KNOX
LACLEDE LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN LINN MCDONALD
MACON MARIES MARION
MILLER MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN NEWTON
OSAGE PETTIS PIKE
POLK PULASKI RALLS
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE
SHELBY STONE VERNON
WARREN WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.