Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARSEILLES ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...
DISCUSSION...MOST FAVORABLE INFLOW OF MOIST POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM NOW ADVANCING EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS CURRENTLY
APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH WITH STORMS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32040.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 334 SEVERE TSTM IA IL LM 211340Z - 211800Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
20SW CID/CEDAR RAPIDS IA/ - 40NE MMO/MARSEILLES IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /20WNW IOW - 16SW ORD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32040.
LAT...LON 42479200 42568813 40978812 40889198
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 334 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 334
VALID 211725Z - 211800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CID TO
20 E CID TO 15 NNW MLI TO 40 E MLI TO 25 NW MMO TO 50 ESE RFD.
WW 334 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 211800Z.
..DIAL..06/21/13
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-063-073-089-093-099-131-155-161-211800-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU GRUNDY HENRY
KANE KENDALL LA SALLE
MERCER PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC031-095-103-107-115-139-163-183-211800-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR IOWA JOHNSON
KEOKUK LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 334
VALID 211635Z - 211740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CID TO
30 SW DBQ TO 40 NNE MLI TO 25 SW RFD TO 15 ESE RFD TO 35 SW RAC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
..DIAL..06/21/13
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-037-063-073-089-093-099-103-111-131-155-161-195-211740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU DE KALB GRUNDY
HENRY KANE KENDALL
LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY
MERCER PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
WHITESIDE
$$
IAC011-031-045-095-103-107-113-115-139-163-183-211740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CEDAR CLINTON
IOWA JOHNSON KEOKUK
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 334
VALID 211535Z - 211640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..06/21/13
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-063-073-085-089-093-099-103-111-131-141-155-
161-177-195-201-211640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB GRUNDY HENRY
JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL
LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY
MERCER OGLE PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC011-019-031-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-107-113-115-139-163-
183-211640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE
IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT
WASHINGTON
$$
LMZ743-211640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 334
VALID 211445Z - 211540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JIRAK..06/21/13
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-063-073-085-089-093-099-103-111-131-141-155-
161-177-195-201-211540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB GRUNDY HENRY
JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL
LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY
MERCER OGLE PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC011-019-031-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-107-113-115-139-163-
183-211540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE
IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT
WASHINGTON
$$
LMZ743-211540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.