Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 715 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LANSING MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 354...WW 355...WW
356...WW 357...
DISCUSSION...NRN IL SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AT AOA 45-50
KTS...GIVEN ASSOCIATED WIND PROFILES SAMPLED AT DVN AND LOT
DEPICTING DEEP/STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET. PRESENCE OF WEAK W-E FRONT
OVER THE GRR-LAN AREA...AND THE NWD ADVANCE OF WEAKER LOW-LVL LAPSE
RATE PLUME ACROSS CNTRL IND EXPECTED TO SERVE AS RESPECTIVE
NORTH/SOUTH DELIMITERS OF SVR THREAT. BACKGROUND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SAMPLED BY IWX VWP SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...BOTH
ALONG THE SQLN...AND WITH ANY SUSTAINED...DISCRETE STORMS FORMING
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF SQLN IN NW IND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 358 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LM 242315Z - 250400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW LAN/LANSING MI/ - 35SSE DNV/DANVILLE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /29ENE GRR - 15NNW TTH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
LAT...LON 43028344 39728594 39728876 43028641
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 358 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 358
VALID 250245Z - 250340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE HUF TO
20 S AZO TO 15 WNW FNT.
..GARNER..06/25/13
ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-033-053-069-075-087-103-113-151-169-179-183-
250340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY LAGRANGE MIAMI
NOBLE STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-059-149-250340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-250340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 358
VALID 250110Z - 250240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CMI
TO 35 NW LAF TO 25 NNE VPZ TO 15 NNE GRR.
..MOSIER..06/25/13
ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC019-029-041-045-139-147-183-250240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMPAIGN COLES DOUGLAS
EDGAR MOULTRIE PIATT
VERMILION
$$
INC001-003-009-011-015-017-023-033-039-045-049-053-067-069-075-
085-087-091-099-103-107-113-121-131-141-149-151-157-159-165-169-
171-179-181-183-250240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
BOONE CARROLL CASS
CLINTON DE KALB ELKHART
FOUNTAIN FULTON GRANT
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MARSHALL MIAMI MONTGOMERY
NOBLE PARKE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON VERMILLION
WABASH WARREN WELLS
WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-059-065-067-075-077-149-159-
250240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-250240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 358
VALID 250005Z - 250140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..06/25/13
ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC019-029-041-045-139-147-183-250140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMPAIGN COLES DOUGLAS
EDGAR MOULTRIE PIATT
VERMILION
$$
INC001-003-009-011-015-017-023-033-039-045-049-053-067-069-075-
085-087-091-099-103-107-113-121-131-141-149-151-157-159-165-169-
171-179-181-183-250140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
BOONE CARROLL CASS
CLINTON DE KALB ELKHART
FOUNTAIN FULTON GRANT
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MARSHALL MIAMI MONTGOMERY
NOBLE PARKE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON VERMILLION
WABASH WARREN WELLS
WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-059-065-067-075-077-081-139-
149-159-250140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT OTTAWA
ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-250140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LMZ043-046-844-845-250140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.