Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EASTERN WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
AKRON COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 425...WW 426...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT
COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 427 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 202205Z - 210500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60ENE 2WX/BUFFALO SD/ - 45SSW AKO/AKRON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /56NNW DPR - 39SSW AKO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
LAT...LON 45880069 39560204 39560505 45880402
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 427 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 427
VALID 210235Z - 210340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DEN
TO 25 WSW AKO TO 30 WNW IML TO 55 N IML TO 45 SW PHP TO 5 ESE PHP
TO 20 W PIR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455
..DEAN..07/21/13
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-121-210340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC005-009-017-031-075-091-103-113-117-149-171-210340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA LOGAN MCPHERSON
ROCK THOMAS
$$
SDC007-071-095-121-123-210340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT JACKSON MELLETTE
TODD TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 427
VALID 210135Z - 210240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DGW TO
60 NW CDR TO 35 W RAP TO 45 NW RAP TO 30 SSW 2WX TO 10 W 2WX TO
35 S BHK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455
..DEAN..07/21/13
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-075-087-095-115-121-123-210240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
NEC005-007-009-013-017-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-103-105-113-
117-123-149-157-161-165-171-210240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BLAINE
BOX BUTTE BROWN CHERRY
CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA KIMBALL LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL ROCK
SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-103-105-113-121-137-
210240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
SHANNON TODD ZIEBACH
$$
WYC015-210240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 427
VALID 210055Z - 210140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DGW TO
65 NW CDR TO 40 W RAP TO 60 SSW 2WX TO 25 WSW 2WX TO 40 WNW 2WX.
..DEAN..07/21/13
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-075-087-095-115-121-123-210140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
NEC005-007-009-013-017-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-103-105-113-
117-123-149-157-161-165-171-210140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BLAINE
BOX BUTTE BROWN CHERRY
CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA KIMBALL LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL ROCK
SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-103-105-113-121-137-
210140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
SHANNON TODD ZIEBACH
$$
WYC015-210140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 427
VALID 202325Z - 210040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..07/20/13
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-075-087-095-115-121-123-210040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-105-123-157-161-165-
210040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-103-105-113-121-137-
210040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
SHANNON TODD ZIEBACH
$$
WYC011-015-045-210040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK GOSHEN WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.