Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN A
DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH
THESE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...WHILE MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS OTHERWISE EXPAND/MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO/NORTHEAST OK. INITIAL RISK OF SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE
OF A CONCERN BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS POTENTIAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 460 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 030020Z - 030700Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55NNW P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/ - 20E JLN/JOPLIN MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /68WNW ICT - 41WSW SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 39189897 38319413 35999413 36869897
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 460 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 460
VALID 030405Z - 030540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AVK
TO 35 E P28 TO 30 SSW HUT TO 45 S RSL TO 25 SW RSL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
..ROGERS..08/03/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-030540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON
$$
KSC001-003-009-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-041-049-053-059-
061-073-077-079-095-099-105-107-111-113-115-121-125-127-133-139-
143-155-159-167-169-173-191-197-205-207-030540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BARTON
BOURBON BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
COWLEY CRAWFORD DICKINSON
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LABETTE
LINCOLN LINN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MIAMI
MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO
OSAGE OTTAWA RENO
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-013-097-119-145-217-030540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES JASPER
MCDONALD NEWTON VERNON
$$
OKC035-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-131-143-147-
030540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG DELAWARE GARFIELD
GRANT KAY MAYES
NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE ROGERS
TULSA WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 460
VALID 030300Z - 030440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE GAG
TO 5 S P28 TO 35 N P28 TO 30 NE DDC.
..ROGERS..08/03/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-030440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON
$$
KSC001-003-009-011-015-017-019-021-031-035-037-041-049-053-059-
061-073-077-079-095-099-105-107-111-113-115-121-125-127-133-139-
143-145-155-159-167-169-173-185-191-197-205-207-030440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BARTON
BOURBON BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
COWLEY CRAWFORD DICKINSON
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LABETTE
LINCOLN LINN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MIAMI
MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
RENO RICE RUSSELL
SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD
SUMNER WABAUNSEE WILSON
WOODSON
$$
MOC011-013-097-119-145-217-030440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES JASPER
MCDONALD NEWTON VERNON
$$
OKC003-035-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-131-143-147-
151-030440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG DELAWARE
GARFIELD GRANT KAY
MAYES NOBLE NOWATA
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS TULSA WASHINGTON
WOODS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 460
VALID 030135Z - 030240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..08/03/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-030240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON
$$
KSC001-003-007-009-011-015-017-019-021-031-033-035-037-041-047-
049-053-059-061-073-077-079-095-097-099-105-107-111-113-115-121-
125-127-133-139-143-145-151-155-159-167-169-173-185-191-197-205-
207-030240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BARBER
BARTON BOURBON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA
LABETTE LINCOLN LINN
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS
NEOSHO OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PRATT RENO
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER
WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON
$$
MOC011-013-097-119-145-217-030240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES JASPER
MCDONALD NEWTON VERNON
$$
OKC003-035-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-131-143-147-
151-030240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA CRAIG DELAWARE
GARFIELD GRANT KAY
MAYES NOBLE NOWATA
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
ROGERS TULSA WASHINGTON
WOODS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.