Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1155 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF COTULLA TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF COTULLA
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53...WW 55...WW 56...
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SE OF DRT. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE STORMS...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR A FEW HOURS
DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE STORM RISK.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 57 SEVERE TSTM TX 040455Z - 041000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNE COT/COTULLA TX/ - 50SSE COT/COTULLA TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /35SW SAT - 33ENE LRD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 29189770 27789776 27780005 29180002
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 57 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 57
VALID 040850Z - 040940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 281
..COHEN..04/04/14
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-025-127-131-163-175-249-255-283-297-311-355-409-463-479-
493-507-040940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEE DIMMIT
DUVAL FRIO GOLIAD
JIM WELLS KARNES LA SALLE
LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES
SAN PATRICIO UVALDE WEBB
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
GMZ230-040940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GMZ230
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 57
VALID 040825Z - 040940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/04/14
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-025-127-131-163-175-249-255-283-297-311-463-479-493-507-
040940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEE DIMMIT
DUVAL FRIO GOLIAD
JIM WELLS KARNES LA SALLE
LIVE OAK MCMULLEN UVALDE
WEBB WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 57
VALID 040720Z - 040840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/04/14
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-025-127-131-163-175-249-255-283-297-311-463-479-493-507-
040840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BEE DIMMIT
DUVAL FRIO GOLIAD
JIM WELLS KARNES LA SALLE
LIVE OAK MCMULLEN UVALDE
WEBB WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 57
VALID 040530Z - 040640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/04/14
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-127-131-163-249-283-297-311-463-479-507-040640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA DIMMIT DUVAL
FRIO JIM WELLS LA SALLE
LIVE OAK MCMULLEN UVALDE
WEBB ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.