Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 630 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 226...WW 227...
DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE RISK THIS MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THIS MCS VIA WARM/MOIST
ADVECTIONS FOCUSED TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
ANGLES ROUGHLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30045.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 228 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 051130Z - 051800Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50N PNC/PONCA CITY OK/ - 35SE UMN/MONETT MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM N/S /29SE ICT - 36ENE RZC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30045.
LAT...LON 38959709 38049344 35009344 35919709
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 228 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 228
VALID 051245Z - 051340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 833
..ROGERS..06/05/14
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...EAX...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-051340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-051340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-
185-209-213-217-225-051340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS GREENE
HICKORY JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON POLK
ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY
VERNON WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-071-097-101-103-105-111-113-115-117-119-
131-135-143-145-147-051340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE KAY
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE
NOWATA OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.