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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWESTERN OHIO
LAKE ERIE
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 145 AM UNTIL 800 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
DETROIT MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 378...WW 379...WW
380...WW 381...
DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE PART OF LONG-LIVED/DAMAGING QLCS HAS SHOWN
SOME WEAKENING IN PAST HOUR...BUT STILL IS PRODUCING OCNL SVR GUSTS
IN ERN PORTIONS WW 381. ALTHOUGH GEN TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
DISORGANIZATION AS COMPLEX MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS INSTABILITY
AND LARGER CINH...FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ITS COLD POOL
MAY KEEP NEAR-SFC INFLOW PARCELS INVOLVED...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN
LOWER MI AND NWRN OH WHERE 70S F DEW POINTS ARE EVIDENT. AS
SUCH...DAMAGING-WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS FAR E AS DETROIT METRO
AND WRN PORTIONS LAKE ERIE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27040.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 382 SEVERE TSTM MI OH LE 010545Z - 011200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25SSW JXN/JACKSON MI/ - 60ESE DTW/DETROIT MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /60WSW DXO - 34NW CLE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 43028466 42978226 40798226 40848466
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 382 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 382
VALID 010745Z - 010840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE FWA TO
15 SSW TOL TO 15 ENE FNT.
..BROYLES..07/01/14
ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC099-115-125-147-163-010840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND
ST. CLAIR WAYNE
$$
OHC003-033-043-063-077-095-123-137-143-147-173-175-010840-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN CRAWFORD ERIE
HANCOCK HURON LUCAS
OTTAWA PUTNAM SANDUSKY
SENECA WOOD WYANDOT
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-444-010840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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