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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF FORT
POLK LOUISIANA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...WW 385...WW 386...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING ALONG MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NRN
LA/W CNTRL MS...AND IN APPARENT UPR-LVL DEFORMATION ZONE-INDUCED
AXIS OF CONFLUENCE FARTHER S...WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND RICH MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP SHEAR
/REF MCD 1255/. SETUP MAY SUPPORT WDLY SCTD WET MICROBURSTS/POCKETS
OF DMGG WIND AS STORMS MERGE AND THE RESULTING CLUSTERS MOVE/DEVELOP
MAINLY SSE AND...EVENTUALLY...SSW THROUGH EARLY EVE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32015.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 387 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 021915Z - 030200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
15W POE/FORT POLK LA/ - 55ESE GWO/GREENWOOD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /50WSW AEX - 38WSW IGB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32015.
LAT...LON 31779383 33908962 32478879 30329302
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 387 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 387
VALID 022255Z - 022340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W IER TO
40 NNE HEZ TO 15 SE JAN TO 45 SW CBM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
..ROGERS..07/02/14
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-025-029-039-043-059-069-077-079-085-097-107-115-
125-022340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE
GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES SABINE
ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON
WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-021-029-037-063-085-099-101-113-123-127-129-157-159-
022340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH FRANKLIN JEFFERSON
LINCOLN NESHOBA NEWTON
PIKE SCOTT SIMPSON
SMITH WILKINSON WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 387
VALID 022140Z - 022240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N IER TO
35 NW JAN TO 35 N JAN TO 35 S UOX.
..ROGERS..07/02/14
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-039-041-043-049-059-065-069-077-079-
083-085-097-107-115-125-127-022240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE MADISON
NATCHITOCHES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY
TENSAS VERNON WEST FELICIANA
WINN
$$
MSC001-005-007-019-021-029-037-049-051-063-079-085-089-097-099-
101-113-121-123-127-129-149-157-159-163-022240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE COPIAH
FRANKLIN HINDS HOLMES
JEFFERSON LEAKE LINCOLN
MADISON MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
WARREN WILKINSON WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 387
VALID 022055Z - 022140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MLU TO
35 N JAN TO 15 N GWO.
..SMITH..07/02/14
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-039-041-043-049-059-065-069-073-077-
079-083-085-097-107-115-125-127-022140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE MADISON
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE
RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE
ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON
WEST FELICIANA WINN
$$
MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-029-037-049-051-063-079-085-089-097-
099-101-113-121-123-127-129-149-157-159-163-022140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE ATTALA
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS
HOLMES JEFFERSON LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON
SMITH WARREN WILKINSON
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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