Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1150 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALTON
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF SW-NE COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL MO. STORMS MAY SOMEWHAT
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY STRENGTH THROUGH EARLY TUE AS
REGION IS GLANCED BY NEXT WEAK IMPULSE SHEARING ENEWD AHEAD OF MAIN
UPR TROUGH MOVING E FROM CNTRL KS. NEAR-SFC SSWLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW LVL WAA ACROSS REGION...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 60 F AND
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 50S. THIS SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW SHORT
LINES/BROKEN SEGMENTS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
PERHAPS ONE OR TWO QLCS TORNADOES GIVEN COOL MID LVL TEMPS/STRENGTH
OF CLOUD LAYER FLOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 1 TORNADO IL MO 170550Z - 171300Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45SSE SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/ - 30NNE ALN/ALTON IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /46SSE SGF - 40NE STL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
LAT...LON 36619451 39299133 39298833 36619162
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 1 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 1
VALID 171240Z - 171300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW UNO
TO 25 SSE BLV.
WW 1 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17/13Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 22.
..KERR..01/17/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC121-157-189-171300-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARION RANDOLPH WASHINGTON
$$
MOC093-123-179-186-187-171300-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IRON MADISON REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 1
VALID 171130Z - 171240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE HRO
TO 30 NW SLO TO 15 SSW MTO.
..KERR..01/17/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-027-051-117-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-171240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLINTON FAYETTE
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
$$
MOC043-055-065-067-071-091-093-099-105-123-149-153-161-169-179-
186-187-189-203-209-213-215-221-225-229-510-171240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN HOWELL
IRON JEFFERSON LACLEDE
MADISON OREGON OZARK
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 1
VALID 171030Z - 171140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE UMN
TO 20 SE VIH TO 40 ENE VIH TO 40 SW STL TO 15 SSW MTO.
..KERR..01/17/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-027-051-117-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-171140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLINTON FAYETTE
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
$$
MOC043-055-065-067-071-091-093-099-105-123-149-153-161-169-179-
186-187-189-203-209-213-215-221-225-229-510-171140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN HOWELL
IRON JEFFERSON LACLEDE
MADISON OREGON OZARK
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 1
VALID 170935Z - 171040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GMJ TO
25 WNW TBN TO 20 N VIH TO 40 SW STL TO 15 SSW MTO.
..KERR..01/17/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-027-051-117-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-171040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLINTON FAYETTE
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-029-043-055-059-065-067-071-077-091-093-099-105-109-119-
123-125-131-149-153-161-169-179-186-187-189-203-209-213-215-221-
225-229-510-171040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENE
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MADISON MARIES MILLER
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
PULASKI REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SHANNON
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 1
VALID 170830Z - 170940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..01/17/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-
170940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CLINTON
FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-029-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-091-093-097-099-
105-109-113-119-123-125-131-139-145-149-151-153-161-167-169-179-
183-186-187-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-170940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE GREENE HOWELL
IRON JASPER JEFFERSON
LACLEDE LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MCDONALD MADISON MARIES
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEWTON
OREGON OSAGE OZARK
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SHANNON
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 1
VALID 170725Z - 170840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..01/17/12
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-
170840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CLINTON
FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-029-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-091-093-097-099-
105-109-113-119-123-125-131-139-145-149-151-153-161-167-169-179-
183-186-187-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-170840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE GREENE HOWELL
IRON JASPER JEFFERSON
LACLEDE LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MCDONALD MADISON MARIES
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEWTON
OREGON OSAGE OZARK
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SHANNON
STONE TANEY TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.