Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF FORT POLK
LOUISIANA TO 60 MILES EAST OF MC COMB MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...DRIVEN BY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME WARM...MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER LAYER AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
LLJ AXIS...ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD/WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 1 TORNADO LA MS TX 202115Z - 210400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
80W POE/FORT POLK LA/ - 60E MCB/MC COMB MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /12SE LFK - 42E MCB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 31849452 31968945 30378945 30259452
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 1 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 1
VALID 210145Z - 210240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 27
..GUYER..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-099-139-210240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE NEVADA UNION
$$
LAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039-
041-043-049-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-
097-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-210240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN LIVINGSTON
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS UNION
VERNON WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA
WINN
$$
MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-061-063-065-067-
069-073-075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-109-113-121-123-125-127-
129-147-149-157-163-210240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON
FORREST FRANKLIN HANCOCK
HINDS ISSAQUENA JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN
MADISON MARION NESHOBA
NEWTON PEARL RIVER PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
WARREN WILKINSON YAZOO
$$
TXC005-199-241-347-351-403-405-419-457-210240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 1
VALID 202330Z - 210040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..01/20/10
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-099-139-210040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE NEVADA UNION
$$
LAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-037-039-041-
043-049-059-061-063-069-073-077-079-081-085-091-097-103-105-107-
111-115-117-119-121-125-127-210040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN LIVINGSTON NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
RED RIVER SABINE ST. HELENA
ST. LANDRY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TENSAS UNION VERNON
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA WINN
$$
MSC001-005-021-029-031-037-045-063-065-073-077-085-091-109-113-
127-129-147-157-210040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FRANKLIN
HANCOCK JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAMAR LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MARION PEARL RIVER PIKE
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
WILKINSON
$$
TXC005-199-241-347-351-403-405-419-457-210040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.