Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
BOOT-HEEL OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WALNUT RIDGE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...GRADUAL INCREASE IN SVR THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS AS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
MOVES NEWD ALONG SW-NE ALIGNED BOUNDARY...IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY
1. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 55-65 KT LLJ AND
2. AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY WITH WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE 250-750
K/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED MSU MOBILE SOUNDING PROVIDED VIA WFO MEG.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 3 TORNADO AR MO 122320Z - 130600Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
70SSW HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/ - 20NNE ARG/WALNUT RIDGE AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /25E TXK - 19NNE ARG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
LAT...LON 33529477 36389205 36388952 33529234
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 3 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 3
VALID 130350Z - 130440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GGG TO
30 ENE TXK TO 10 SE HOT TO 20 NNW LIT TO 10 ESE BVX TO 20 ESE POF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 20
..JEWELL..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-021-025-027-031-037-039-045-053-055-057-059-
067-069-073-079-085-091-093-095-099-103-111-117-119-123-125-139-
145-147-130440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD CROSS
DALLAS FAULKNER GRANT
GREENE HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LONOKE MILLER
MISSISSIPPI MONROE NEVADA
OUACHITA POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
UNION WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC069-155-130440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 3
VALID 130215Z - 130340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW TXK
TO 25 ESE DEQ TO 25 W HOT TO 20 SSE RUE TO 20 WSW BVX TO 20 WNW
ARG TO 5 WNW POF.
..JEWELL..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-039-045-051-053-
055-057-059-061-063-067-069-073-075-079-081-085-091-093-095-097-
099-103-105-109-111-117-119-121-123-125-139-145-147-130340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
GREENE HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MISSISSIPPI MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POINSETT
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE UNION
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC069-155-130340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TXC037-130340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 3
VALID 130110Z - 130240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PRX
TO 40 NE DEQ TO 5 WSW RUE TO 25 SSE FLP TO 35 ESE UNO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 18
..JEWELL..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-039-045-051-053-
055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-085-091-093-095-
097-099-103-105-109-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-133-135-137-139-
141-145-147-149-130240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
GREENE HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POINSETT POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SALINE SEVIER SHARP
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MOC069-155-130240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TXC037-130240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.