Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 500 AM UNTIL NOON CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
SILL OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
WRN OK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WRN
U.S. TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FURTHER
STRENGTHENS...AND AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BY A
MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHEN COUPLED
WITH 60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
300-350 M2/S2...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 5 TORNADO OK TX 291100Z - 291800Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25SW FSI/FORT SILL OK/ - 20NNW PNC/PONCA CITY OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /25NNW SPS - 49SSE ICT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
LAT...LON 34389976 36979833 36979615 34389766
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 5 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 5
VALID 291730Z - 291800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE FSI TO
15 E OKC TO 25 NNE CQB.
WW 5 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 291800Z.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC027-037-049-081-087-125-137-291800-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND CREEK GARVIN
LINCOLN MCCLAIN POTTAWATOMIE
STEPHENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 5
VALID 291640Z - 291740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE FSI
TO 25 NNW CQB TO 20 SW BVO.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC027-037-049-081-087-113-117-125-137-291740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND CREEK GARVIN
LINCOLN MCCLAIN OSAGE
PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 5
VALID 291530Z - 291640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FSI TO
35 N OKC TO 25 NW BVO.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC015-017-027-031-033-037-049-051-081-083-087-109-113-117-119-
125-137-291640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
GARVIN GRADY LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 5
VALID 291425Z - 291540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SPS TO
35 NE PNC.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC015-017-027-031-033-037-049-051-081-083-087-109-113-117-119-
125-137-291540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
GARVIN GRADY LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 5
VALID 291335Z - 291440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW LTS
TO 20 NNW PNC.
..MEAD..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC015-017-027-031-033-037-049-051-071-073-075-081-083-087-103-
109-113-117-119-125-137-141-291440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
GARVIN GRADY KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS
TILLMAN
$$
TXC487-291440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 5
VALID 291235Z - 291340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CSM TO
35 NW PNC.
..MEAD..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-037-039-047-049-051-053-055-057-065-
071-073-075-081-083-087-103-109-113-117-119-125-137-141-149-
291340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
CREEK CUSTER GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
NOBLE OKLAHOMA OSAGE
PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC197-487-291340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDEMAN WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.