Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE
MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 5 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 222320Z - 230600Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 25WSW GLH/GREENVILLE MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /31NNW DYR - 56W SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
LAT...LON 36458811 33318991 33319284 36459116
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 5 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 5
VALID 230435Z - 230540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELD
TO 35 NNW DYR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 52
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-017-035-041-043-077-079-093-095-107-230540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CHICOT CRITTENDEN DESHA
DREW LEE LINCOLN
MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS
$$
MSC009-011-015-027-033-043-051-053-071-083-093-097-107-119-133-
135-137-143-151-161-230540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR CARROLL
COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-230540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-069-075-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-230540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 5
VALID 230335Z - 230440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ELD
TO 35 ESE POF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 51
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-021-025-031-035-037-041-043-055-069-075-
077-079-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-230440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLAY
CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DESHA DREW
GREENE JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI
MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT
PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF
$$
MSC009-011-015-027-033-043-051-053-071-083-093-097-107-119-133-
135-137-143-151-161-230440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR CARROLL
COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-230440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-069-075-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-230440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 5
VALID 230230Z - 230340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 49
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-053-
055-063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-121-
123-125-145-147-230340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLAY
CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER GRANT
GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MSC009-011-015-027-033-043-051-053-071-083-093-097-107-119-133-
135-137-143-151-161-230340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR CARROLL
COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-230340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-069-075-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-230340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 5
VALID 230135Z - 230240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 48
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-053-
055-063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-121-
123-125-145-147-230240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLAY
CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER GRANT
GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MSC009-011-015-027-033-043-051-053-071-083-093-097-107-119-133-
135-137-143-151-161-230240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR CARROLL
COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-230240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-069-075-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-230240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 5
VALID 230045Z - 230140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 47
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-053-
055-063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-121-
123-125-145-147-230140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLAY
CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER GRANT
GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MSC009-011-015-027-033-043-051-053-071-083-093-097-107-119-133-
135-137-143-151-161-230140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR CARROLL
COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL MONTGOMERY
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-230140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-069-075-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-230140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HAYWOOD
LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.