Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 825 AM UNTIL
400 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 4...
DISCUSSION...SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO S GA LATER TODAY. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE ON SRN SIDE OF SYSTEM...AND AS
REGION COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXIT REGION OF 100+
KT WLY HI LVL JET...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS/SMALL
BOWS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 5 TORNADO FL GA CW 211325Z - 212100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25NE JAX/JACKSONVILLE FL/ - 25SSW PFN/PANAMA CITY FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /26NNE CRG - 71SE CEW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 30038137 29158583 30618583 31478137
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 5 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 5
VALID 212025Z - 212140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY TO
15 NNW GNV TO 25 NE GNV.
..SPC..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-007-019-029-041-107-109-212140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BRADFORD CLAY
DIXIE GILCHRIST PUTNAM
ST. JOHNS
$$
GMZ765-212140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 5
VALID 211950Z - 212040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW AAF TO
15 ESE AAF TO 40 NE CTY TO 20 W SGJ.
..SPC..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-007-019-023-029-041-067-107-109-121-123-125-212040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DIXIE GILCHRIST
LAFAYETTE PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
AMZ452-GMZ730-755-765-212040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 5
VALID 211840Z - 211940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW AAF
TO 30 SSE TLH TO 35 NNE GNV TO 25 NE JAX.
..SPC..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-037-041-067-089-121-123-125-
211940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FRANKLIN GILCHRIST
LAFAYETTE NASSAU SUWANNEE
TAYLOR UNION
$$
AMZ450-452-GMZ730-755-765-211940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 5
VALID 211715Z - 211840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN
TO 15 S TLH TO 40 S VLD TO 20 N SSI.
..SPC..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-037-041-045-047-065-067-089-121-
123-125-129-211840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FRANKLIN GILCHRIST
GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE NASSAU SUWANNEE
TAYLOR UNION WAKULLA
$$
GAC025-039-049-127-211840-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON
GLYNN
$$
AMZ450-452-GMZ730-750-755-765-211840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 5
VALID 211505Z - 211640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-005-007-013-019-023-029-031-037-039-041-045-047-065-
067-073-077-079-089-121-123-125-129-211640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BAY
BRADFORD CALHOUN CLAY
COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GILCHRIST
GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY
MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE
TAYLOR UNION WAKULLA
$$
GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-087-101-127-
131-161-173-185-229-253-275-299-305-211640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
COFFEE COLQUITT COOK
DECATUR ECHOLS GLYNN
GRADY JEFF DAVIS LANIER
LOWNDES PIERCE SEMINOLE
THOMAS WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ450-452-GMZ730-750-755-765-211640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.