Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
200 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM AR TO SE
MO...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LOW
LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND A COOL AIR MASS ERODES. THOUGH SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SRN HALF OF THE
WATCH AREA...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE IS
EXPECTED...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE
FAST STORM MOTIONS AND 60-70 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 6 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 230130Z - 230800Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40WNW EVV/EVANSVILLE IN/ - 50S CGI/CAPE GIRARDEAU MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /29NW PXV - 31NNW DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 38248673 36498812 36499101 38248969
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 6 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 6
VALID 230625Z - 230740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE OWB TO
35 ENE EVV.
REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED/CANCELED BY ABOUT 07Z...ONCE TSTM BAND
MOVES OUT OF REMAINING COUNTIES IN WW 6.
..EDWARDS..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC147-230740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPENCER
$$
KYC047-059-177-219-230740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHRISTIAN DAVIESS MUHLENBERG
TODD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 6
VALID 230530Z - 230640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PAH TO
25 NW EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 53
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-065-069-127-151-165-185-191-193-230640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN MASSAC POPE
SALINE WABASH WAYNE
WHITE
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-230640-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC033-035-047-055-059-083-101-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-
221-225-233-230640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS GRAVES
HENDERSON HOPKINS LIVINGSTON
LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN
MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD
TRIGG UNION WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 6
VALID 230430Z - 230540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DYR
TO 10 ESE MVN.
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-230540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-230540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-230540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC133-143-201-230540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 6
VALID 230335Z - 230440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE POF TO
25 SE BLV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 51
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-230440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-230440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-230440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-230440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 6
VALID 230230Z - 230340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-230340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-230340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-230340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-230340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.