Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CST MON FEB 9 2009
CORRECTED FOR STORM TOPS
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF LOW-TOPPED FORCED CONVECTION IS SURGING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VERY POWERFUL...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND NO DETECTABLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...HART
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CST MON FEB 9 2009
CORRECTED FOR STORM TOPS
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF LOW-TOPPED FORCED CONVECTION IS SURGING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VERY POWERFUL...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND NO DETECTABLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 7 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 091455Z - 091900Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NE STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 30ESE JLN/JOPLIN MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /45N MKC - 39SW SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
LAT...LON 40029383 36979326 36979472 40029533
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 7 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 7
VALID 091635Z - 091740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SGF
TO 20 W SZL TO 20 NNE STJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 77.
..GOSS..02/09/09
ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC025-047-049-061-063-077-083-101-107-167-177-185-091740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GREENE
HENRY JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
POLK RAY ST. CLAIR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
