Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ALABAMA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM UNTIL
600 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 5. WATCH NUMBER 5 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1100
PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 6...
DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EWD
OVERNIGHT FROM NW MS/WRN TN TO MIDDLE TN AND NW AL...WHILE
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MS
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS/CONFLUENCE BAND. A VERY STRONG SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK OF BOTH SUPERCELL AND QLCS TORNADOES WHERE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS. EVENTUALLY...THE NE EXTENT OF THE
TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME LIMITED BY THE RESIDUAL
COOL/STABLE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE FROM NE AL/NW GA
INTO ERN TN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 7 TORNADO AL AR LA MS TN 230500Z - 231200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15ENE CKV/CLARKSVILLE TN/ - 50SSW JAN/JACKSON MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /38WSW BWG - 22NNW MCB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
REPLACES WW 5..AR MO MS TN
LAT...LON 36688555 31638887 31639194 36688879
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 7 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 7
VALID 231139Z - 231240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE PIB
TO 20 SSE MEI.
REMAINING COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTION NEAR AND SE OF PIB
MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED PAST SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME. REMAINDER
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 56.
..EDWARDS..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-095-231240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON
MARSHALL
$$
MSC023-035-067-073-075-091-231240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST JONES
LAMAR LAUDERDALE MARION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 7
VALID 231055Z - 231140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW PIB TO
45 SW TCL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 56
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-089-095-103-231140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON
MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN
$$
MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-073-075-091-231140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST
JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAUDERDALE MARION
$$
TNC051-231140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 7
VALID 230940Z - 231040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MCB
TO 15 SE CBM TO 25 SW HSV.
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-057-071-089-095-103-133-231040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB FAYETTE
JACKSON MADISON MARSHALL
MORGAN WINSTON
$$
MSC023-031-061-065-067-069-075-077-099-101-103-127-129-231040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COVINGTON JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE SIMPSON
SMITH
$$
TNC051-061-231040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GRUNDY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 7
VALID 230850Z - 230940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MCB
TO 35 W CBM TO 20 N HSV TO 50 ESE BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 55
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-057-059-071-075-079-083-089-093-095-103-133-230940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB FAYETTE
FRANKLIN JACKSON LAMAR
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
WINSTON
$$
MSC007-019-023-025-029-031-037-061-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-
087-099-101-103-105-121-123-127-129-159-230940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE
CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON
FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN
LOWNDES NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA RANKIN
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
WINSTON
$$
TNC003-015-027-031-041-051-061-087-103-127-141-177-230940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CLAY
COFFEE DE KALB FRANKLIN
GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN
MOORE PUTNAM WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 7
VALID 230745Z - 230840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLU TO
10 S GWO TO 30 NNE GWO TO 50 SW BNA TO 25 SW BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 55
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-033-043-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-
103-107-119-125-127-133-230840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT COLBERT CULLMAN
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
$$
LAC025-029-041-065-107-230840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN
MADISON TENSAS
$$
MSC001-003-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-037-043-049-
051-057-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-115-117-121-123-127-129-141-149-155-159-163-
230840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN ATTALA
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE
CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON
FRANKLIN GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES ITAWAMBA JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEE LINCOLN
LOWNDES MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS RANKIN SCOTT
SIMPSON SMITH TISHOMINGO
WARREN WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$
TNC003-021-037-055-099-103-117-119-127-147-149-165-181-187-189-
230840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
GILES LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SUMNER
WAYNE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 7
VALID 230625Z - 230740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE GLH TO
35 ESE MKL TO 45 ENE MKL TO 5 NW HOP.
..EDWARDS..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-033-043-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-
103-107-119-125-127-133-230740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT COLBERT CULLMAN
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-230740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-037-043-
049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-
085-087-089-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-133-135-139-141-145-149-151-155-159-161-163-230740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN ATTALA
BENTON CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
COVINGTON FRANKLIN GRENADA
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAFAYETTE LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEAKE LEE
LEFLORE LINCOLN LOWNDES
MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
TNC003-021-037-039-043-055-071-081-083-085-099-101-103-109-117-
119-125-127-135-147-149-161-165-181-187-189-230740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DECATUR DICKSON GILES
HARDIN HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MCNAIRY MARSHALL
MAURY MONTGOMERY MOORE
PERRY ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
STEWART SUMNER WAYNE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.