Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLYTHE
CALIFORNIA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX ARIZONA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...
DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG/DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CA IS
ACCOMPANIED BY 180KT POLAR JET MAX CROSSING NRN BAJA THIS EVENING.
THIS PLACES AN UNUSUALLY POTENT WIND PROFILE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SURGED NWD FROM THE GULF OF CA WITH
DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE UPPER 50S LWR CO RIVER VALLEY.
A FORCED LINE ON LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING SERN CA AND
WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LINE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS UPWARDS TO 50KTS AND LCL/S ARE
FAVORABLY LOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 8 TORNADO AZ CA 212305Z - 220500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10NW BLH/BLYTHE CA/ - 60SSE PHX/PHOENIX AZ/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /58NNW BZA - 48NW TUS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
LAT...LON 34861483 33771162 31461162 32541483
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 8 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 8
VALID 220350Z - 220440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN
TO 40 S PRC.
..GUYER..01/22/10
ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC013-019-021-220440-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARICOPA PIMA PINAL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 8
VALID 220240Z - 220340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN
TO 40 SW PRC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 48
..GUYER..01/22/10
ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC013-019-021-220340-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARICOPA PIMA PINAL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 8
VALID 220135Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE YUM
TO 50 SSE IGM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 48
..GUYER..01/22/10
ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC013-021-027-220240-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARICOPA PINAL YUMA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
