Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6...WW 7...WW 8...
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NW AR INTO SRN MO. THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE BOTH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 9 TORNADO AR IL MO 291835Z - 300200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60S HRO/HARRISON AR/ - 55NNW STL/SAINT LOUIS MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /55E FSM - 32SE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 35409438 39479208 39478944 35409191
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 9 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 9
VALID 300125Z - 300200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RUE TO
15 ENE UNO TO 15 N FAM.
WW 9 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300200Z.
..MOSIER..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC093-149-179-300200-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IRON OREGON REYNOLDS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 9
VALID 292240Z - 292340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UMN
TO 25 SSW TBN TO 40 SE UIN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 74
..MOSIER..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-049-065-089-101-129-135-137-141-292340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FULTON IZARD
MARION NEWTON SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
$$
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-292340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC055-065-067-071-091-093-099-113-123-149-153-161-179-183-186-
187-189-203-213-215-219-221-229-510-292340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SHANNON
TANEY TEXAS WARREN
WASHINGTON WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 9
VALID 292145Z - 292240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UMN
TO 25 SSW TBN TO 40 SE UIN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 74
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-049-065-089-101-129-135-137-141-292240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FULTON IZARD
MARION NEWTON SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
$$
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-292240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-113-123-149-153-161-179-183-
186-187-189-203-213-215-219-221-229-510-292240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL
IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN
MADISON OREGON OZARK
PHELPS REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SHANNON TANEY TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 9
VALID 292035Z - 292140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE SGF
TO 25 S UIN.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-049-065-089-101-129-135-137-141-292140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FULTON IZARD
MARION NEWTON SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
$$
ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-149-157-163-292140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALHOUN GREENE
JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON
MONROE PIKE RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC027-051-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-113-123-125-139-149-
151-153-161-163-169-179-183-186-187-189-203-213-215-219-221-229-
510-292140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
MARIES MONTGOMERY OREGON
OSAGE OZARK PHELPS
PIKE PULASKI REYNOLDS
ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS SHANNON TANEY
TEXAS WARREN WASHINGTON
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 9
VALID 291930Z - 292040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 72
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-049-065-089-101-129-135-137-141-292040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY FULTON IZARD
MARION NEWTON SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
$$
ILC001-009-013-061-083-117-119-133-149-157-163-292040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN
MADISON MONROE PIKE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC007-019-027-051-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-113-123-125-
127-135-137-139-149-151-153-161-163-169-173-179-183-186-187-189-
203-213-215-219-221-229-510-292040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
COLE CRAWFORD DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN MADISON MARIES
MARION MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY OREGON OSAGE
OZARK PHELPS PIKE
PULASKI RALLS REYNOLDS
ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS SHANNON TANEY
TEXAS WARREN WASHINGTON
WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.