Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN OHIO
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 215 AM UNTIL 900 AM EST.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CINCINNATI OHIO TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...WW 8...
DISCUSSION...CNTRL IND/KY SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO OH AND
ERN KY THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. AREA VWP DATA SHOW STRENGTHENING
SSWLY LLJ IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF LINE...WITH 850 MB SPEEDS NOW AROUND
80 KTS. THE LLJ SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS ASSOCIATED UPR VORT NOW
ENTERING WRN KY ASSUMES MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND HEADS NEWD.
THUS...DESPITE INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE LOW-LVL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR SFC WINDS WITH EWD EXTENT...COMBINATION OF
INCREASING NEAR-SFC FLOW WITH INCREASING DPVA AND RISING TERRAIN MAY
SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR DMGG WIND EWD INTO WW AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 9 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 230715Z - 231400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NE LUK/CINCINNATI OH/ - 50SW LOZ/LONDON KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /39NE CVG - 40SW LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
LAT...LON 39408270 36568345 36568598 39408533
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 9 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 9
VALID 231050Z - 231140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LOZ TO
25 WNW JKL TO 30 WSW UNI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 57
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC013-025-051-063-095-121-129-131-153-175-189-193-237-231140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BREATHITT CLAY
ELLIOTT HARLAN KNOX
LEE LESLIE MAGOFFIN
MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY
WOLFE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 9
VALID 230935Z - 231040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CSV TO
40 NE LEX TO 35 NE LUK.
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-013-017-025-049-051-063-065-069-079-095-109-121-125-129-
131-135-137-147-151-153-161-165-173-175-181-189-193-197-199-201-
203-205-231-235-237-231040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BELL BOURBON
BREATHITT CLARK CLAY
ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING
GARRARD HARLAN JACKSON
KNOX LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LEWIS LINCOLN
MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN
MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NICHOLAS OWSLEY
PERRY POWELL PULASKI
ROBERTSON ROCKCASTLE ROWAN
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
OHC001-015-027-047-071-131-141-145-231040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CLINTON
FAYETTE HIGHLAND PIKE
ROSS SCIOTO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 9
VALID 230840Z - 230940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE BWG TO
50 SW LEX TO 40 NNW LEX TO 25 NW LUK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 54.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END WITH SQUALL LINE PASSAGE. COUNTIES
IN SEVERE WATCH #0009 CAN BE CLEARED ACCORDINGLY.
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-005-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-037-045-049-051-053-057-
063-065-067-069-073-079-081-095-097-109-113-117-121-125-129-131-
135-137-147-151-153-155-161-165-167-171-173-175-181-187-189-191-
193-197-199-201-203-205-207-209-217-229-231-235-237-239-
230940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDERSON BATH
BELL BOONE BOURBON
BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT
CAMPBELL CASEY CLARK
CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND
ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE
FLEMING FRANKLIN GARRARD
GRANT HARLAN HARRISON
JACKSON JESSAMINE KENTON
KNOX LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LEWIS LINCOLN
MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN
MARION MASON MENIFEE
MERCER MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NICHOLAS OWEN
OWSLEY PENDLETON PERRY
POWELL PULASKI ROBERTSON
ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL
SCOTT TAYLOR WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
WOODFORD
$$
OHC001-015-017-025-027-047-061-071-131-141-145-165-230940-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN BUTLER
CLERMONT CLINTON FAYETTE
HAMILTON HIGHLAND PIKE
ROSS SCIOTO WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.