Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL 400
PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS GEORGIA TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 11...
DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF W CNTRL GA MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TORNADOES LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN AS REGION
REMAINS BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
DEPARTING NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROUGH. THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK FOR
TORNADOES SHOULD FOCUS BETWEEN EXISTING SW-NE BAND OF STORMS NOW
NEARING MGM...AND CONFLUENCE BAND MARKING ERN EDGE OF RICH MOISTURE
RETURN ATTM EXTENDING SSW FROM NEAR CSG. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD AS THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY DRIFTS SLOWLY E
WITH TIME. MODEST SFC HEATING MAY COMPENSATE FOR DIMINISHING WIND
FIELD AND FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SVR
RISK S AND W OF WEDGE AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER CNTRL/ERN GA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 12 TORNADO GA 231350Z - 232100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
15WSW CSG/COLUMBUS GA/ - 5NE MCN/MACON GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /37S LGC - 5NE MCN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 33228534 33528376 31968341 31658498
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 12 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 12
VALID 231640Z - 231740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AUO TO 25
NNE CSG TO 30 S ATL TO 20 ESE ATL.
..JEWELL..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC021-053-079-081-093-145-153-171-177-193-197-207-215-225-231-
239-243-249-259-261-263-269-273-293-307-231740-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHATTAHOOCHEE CRAWFORD
CRISP DOOLY HARRIS
HOUSTON LAMAR LEE
MACON MARION MONROE
MUSCOGEE PEACH PIKE
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SCHLEY
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TAYLOR TERRELL UPSON
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 12
VALID 231530Z - 231640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC021-045-053-077-079-081-093-145-149-153-171-177-193-197-199-
207-215-225-231-239-243-249-259-261-263-269-273-285-293-307-
231640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE
COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP
DOOLY HARRIS HEARD
HOUSTON LAMAR LEE
MACON MARION MERIWETHER
MONROE MUSCOGEE PEACH
PIKE QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER
TALBOT TAYLOR TERRELL
TROUP UPSON WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 12
VALID 231430Z - 231540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC021-045-053-077-079-081-093-145-149-153-171-177-193-197-199-
207-215-225-231-239-243-249-259-261-263-269-273-285-293-307-
231540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE
COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP
DOOLY HARRIS HEARD
HOUSTON LAMAR LEE
MACON MARION MERIWETHER
MONROE MUSCOGEE PEACH
PIKE QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER
TALBOT TAYLOR TERRELL
TROUP UPSON WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.