Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUSTIN
TEXAS TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER FAR W TX WILL
SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO S CENTRAL TX. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS S TX...AND THE
CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE LAREDO AREA NEWD. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY STRONG ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF A 40+ KT LLJ /EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 300 M2 PER S2/...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE RANGE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
/MORE DISCRETE/ STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK
WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
LINEAR MCS AND MOVE EWD.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 13 TORNADO TX 250405Z - 251100Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW AUS/AUSTIN TX/ - 35WSW LRD/LAREDO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /22NW AUS - 32WSW LRD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 30549656 27359861 27350137 30549943
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 13 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 13
VALID 250835Z - 250940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LRD
TO 40 NW LRD TO 30 NW HDO TO 45 E JCT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 66.
..EDWARDS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-025-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-131-149-163-171-
175-177-187-209-249-255-259-265-283-285-287-297-299-311-325-453-
463-479-491-493-507-250940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEE BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS JIM WELLS KARNES
KENDALL KERR LA SALLE
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
LLANO MCMULLEN MEDINA
TRAVIS UVALDE WEBB
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 13
VALID 250738Z - 250840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LRD
TO 65 W COT TO 55 ESE DRT TO 55 WNW HDO.
..EDWARDS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-025-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-131-149-163-171-
175-177-187-209-249-255-259-265-283-285-287-297-299-311-323-325-
385-453-463-479-491-493-507-250840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEE BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS JIM WELLS KARNES
KENDALL KERR LA SALLE
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
LLANO MCMULLEN MAVERICK
MEDINA REAL TRAVIS
UVALDE WEBB WILLIAMSON
WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 13
VALID 250625Z - 250740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 65.
..EDWARDS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-025-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-131-149-163-171-
175-177-187-209-249-255-259-265-271-283-285-287-297-299-311-323-
325-385-453-463-479-491-493-507-250740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEE BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS JIM WELLS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LA SALLE LAVACA LEE
LIVE OAK LLANO MCMULLEN
MAVERICK MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WEBB
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 13
VALID 250540Z - 250640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 65.
..GRAMS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 13
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-021-025-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-131-149-163-171-
175-177-187-209-249-255-259-265-271-283-285-287-297-299-311-323-
325-385-453-463-479-491-493-507-250640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEE BEXAR BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL
FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE
GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS JIM WELLS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LA SALLE LAVACA LEE
LIVE OAK LLANO MCMULLEN
MAVERICK MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WEBB
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.