Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 320 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF ALICE TEXAS
TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF WACO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 13...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED
OVER PARTS CNTRL AND E TX THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WIND FIELD AND UPR
DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHEN IN NE QUADRANT OF W TX UPR LOW. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD...ASSOCIATED MID/UPR LVL JET STREAK WILL REFORM
ON ERN SIDE OF SYSTEM. COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NWRN GULF AND THE SRN/MIDDLE TX CSTL
PLN...SETUP MAY FOSTER AN INCREASING RISK FOR STORMS WITH LOW-LVL
MESOS GIVEN LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF SELY NEAR-SFC FLOW.
THE WRN-MOST SQLN...NOW EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 40 W TPL TO NEAR COT
SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY EWD...EFFECTIVELY MARKING WRN EDGE OF RISK
AREA. BAND OF STORMS E OF THAT SQLN...ATTM EXTENDING SSWWD FROM E
OF AUS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND
PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES. TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT ARISE LATER THIS MORNING IN
CONFLUENT FLOW FARTHER E TOWARD THE VCT/HOU AREAS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 14 TORNADO TX CW 250920Z - 251700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15S ALI/ALICE TX/ - 60ENE ACT/WACO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /39SW CRP - 53ENE ACT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.
LAT...LON 27519941 31949773 31949483 27519663
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 14 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 14
VALID 251445Z - 251540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ALI TO
25 E NIR TO 55 N VCT TO 50 S CLL TO 30 SW UTS TO 20 NW UTS TO 25
WNW TYR.
..JEWELL..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-007-015-039-057-071-089-157-167-201-213-225-239-291-321-
339-373-391-407-455-469-471-473-481-251540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ARANSAS AUSTIN
BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARRIS HENDERSON HOUSTON
JACKSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA
MONTGOMERY POLK REFUGIO
SAN JACINTO TRINITY VICTORIA
WALKER WALLER WHARTON
$$
GMZ235-330-335-251540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O’CONNOR
MATAGORDA BAY
GALVESTON BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 14
VALID 251337Z - 251440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ALI
TO 30 NW VCT TO 45 SE AUS TO 30 SSW CLL TO 10 N CLL TO 5 SSW CRS.
NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR SOME ADJOINING AREAS TO THE E.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 67.
..EDWARDS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-007-015-025-039-041-057-071-089-123-149-157-161-167-175-
185-201-213-225-239-273-285-289-291-313-321-339-349-355-373-391-
395-407-409-455-469-471-473-477-481-251440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ARANSAS AUSTIN
BEE BRAZORIA BRAZOS
CALHOUN CHAMBERS COLORADO
DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND
FREESTONE GALVESTON GOLIAD
GRIMES HARRIS HENDERSON
HOUSTON JACKSON KLEBERG
LAVACA LEON LIBERTY
MADISON MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY
NAVARRO NUECES POLK
REFUGIO ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO
SAN PATRICIO TRINITY VICTORIA
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON
$$
GMZ230-235-330-335-251440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O’CONNOR
MATAGORDA BAY
GALVESTON BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 14
VALID 251230Z - 251340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ALI TO
20 NW NIR TO 45 NNW NIR TO 25 ENE BAZ TO 40 E AUS TO 15 ESE ACT
TO 10 ESE CRS.
..EDWARDS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-007-015-021-025-039-041-051-055-057-089-123-145-149-157-
161-167-175-177-185-201-213-225-239-249-255-273-285-287-289-293-
297-313-321-331-339-349-355-391-395-407-409-455-469-471-473-477-
481-251340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ARANSAS AUSTIN
BASTROP BEE BRAZORIA
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT
FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND
FREESTONE GALVESTON GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS
HENDERSON HOUSTON JACKSON
JIM WELLS KARNES KLEBERG
LAVACA LEE LEON
LIMESTONE LIVE OAK MADISON
MATAGORDA MILAM MONTGOMERY
NAVARRO NUECES REFUGIO
ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO SAN PATRICIO
TRINITY VICTORIA WALKER
WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON
$$
GMZ230-235-330-251340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O’CONNOR
MATAGORDA BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 14
VALID 251134Z - 251240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ALI TO
10 W BAZ TO 25 ENE AUS TO 25 E TPL TO 15 ESE ACT TO 15 E CRS.
..EDWARDS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-007-015-021-025-039-041-051-055-057-089-123-145-149-157-
161-167-175-177-185-187-201-213-225-239-249-255-273-285-287-289-
293-297-309-313-321-331-339-349-355-391-395-407-409-455-469-471-
473-477-481-493-251240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ARANSAS AUSTIN
BASTROP BEE BRAZORIA
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT
FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND
FREESTONE GALVESTON GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE
HARRIS HENDERSON HOUSTON
JACKSON JIM WELLS KARNES
KLEBERG LAVACA LEE
LEON LIMESTONE LIVE OAK
MCLENNAN MADISON MATAGORDA
MILAM MONTGOMERY NAVARRO
NUECES REFUGIO ROBERTSON
SAN JACINTO SAN PATRICIO TRINITY
VICTORIA WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WILSON
$$
GMZ230-235-330-251240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O’CONNOR
MATAGORDA BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 14
VALID 251040Z - 251140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE LRD
TO 35 ESE COT TO 20 WSW SAT.
..EDWARDS..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-007-013-015-021-025-027-029-031-039-041-051-053-055-057-
089-091-099-123-131-145-149-157-161-167-175-177-185-187-201-209-
213-217-225-239-249-255-259-273-281-285-287-289-293-297-309-311-
313-321-325-331-339-349-355-391-395-407-409-453-455-469-471-473-
477-479-481-491-493-251140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ARANSAS ATASCOSA
AUSTIN BASTROP BEE
BELL BEXAR BLANCO
BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL CALHOUN
COLORADO COMAL CORYELL
DEWITT DUVAL FALLS
FAYETTE FORT BEND FREESTONE
GALVESTON GOLIAD GONZALES
GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS
HAYS HENDERSON HILL
HOUSTON JACKSON JIM WELLS
KARNES KENDALL KLEBERG
LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE
LEON LIMESTONE LIVE OAK
MCLENNAN MCMULLEN MADISON
MATAGORDA MEDINA MILAM
MONTGOMERY NAVARRO NUECES
REFUGIO ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO
SAN PATRICIO TRAVIS TRINITY
VICTORIA WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WEBB WHARTON
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
GMZ230-235-330-251140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O’CONNOR
MATAGORDA BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.