Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 105 AM UNTIL 600 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13...WW 14...
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD FROM TX
ACROSS LA/SRN AR TO NEAR THE MS RIVER BY 11-12Z...AS AN INTENSE MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX EJECTS ENEWD. AN INFLUX OF LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS AND SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A
60-70 KT SLY LLJ...AND THIS LLJ WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS/TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 15 TORNADO AR LA MS TX 110705Z - 111200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNE LLQ/MONTICELLO AR/ - 35SW POE/FORT POLK LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /46SE LIT - 42NW LCH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 34169026 30699241 30699476 34169270
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 15 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 15
VALID 111040Z - 111140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE POE TO
5 NW MLU TO 40 E PBF.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-041-079-111140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA
LINCOLN
$$
LAC003-009-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-059-065-067-073-079-083-
107-123-111140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES CALDWELL
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND
TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-055-125-133-151-111140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR ISSAQUENA SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 15
VALID 110940Z - 111040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW POE TO
25 N IER TO 5 W PBF.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-017-041-043-079-111040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT
DESHA DREW LINCOLN
$$
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-
069-073-079-083-107-111-115-123-127-111040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC011-055-125-133-151-111040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR ISSAQUENA SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 15
VALID 110840Z - 110940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BPT TO
30 SSW ELD TO 20 N ELD TO 35 ESE HOT.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-025-041-043-079-139-110940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA
DREW LINCOLN UNION
$$
LAC003-009-011-013-021-025-027-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-061-
065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-123-127-110940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS
UNION VERNON WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-055-125-133-151-110940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR ISSAQUENA SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC241-351-403-110940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER NEWTON SABINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 15
VALID 110755Z - 110840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-025-041-043-079-139-110840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA
DREW LINCOLN UNION
$$
LAC003-009-011-013-021-025-027-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-061-
065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-123-127-110840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS
UNION VERNON WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-055-125-133-151-110840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR ISSAQUENA SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC199-241-351-403-457-110840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER NEWTON
SABINE TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
