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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 755 AM UNTIL
300 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 14...
DISCUSSION...NRN PARTS OF E TX SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO
RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT NEAR DIFFUSE WNW-ESE WARM
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N OF LUFKIN TX TO NEAR BATON ROUGE LA.
AREA VWP DATA SHOW 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTING EWD IN TANDEM WITH
SQLN...ENHANCING LOW LVL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING LOW LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE/SHEAR AND MODEST SFC HEATING MAY
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LEWPS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
ISOLD TORNADOES. OTHER STORMS MAY ARISE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTN WITHIN CONFLUENCE BAND NOW OVER THE HOUSTON AREA AHEAD OF
SQLN. ANY SUSTAINED STORMS FORMING WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A
TORNADO THREAT LATER TODAY OVER SW LA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 15 TORNADO LA TX CW 251355Z - 252100Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30N IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 30SSW BPT/PORT ARTHUR TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /51SE EIC - 64ESE IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
LAT...LON 32159148 29549262 29549579 32159472
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 15 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 15
VALID 251830Z - 251940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LBX
TO 45 NE HOU TO 50 SSE LFK TO 40 ENE LFK TO 15 S SHV TO 25 SSE
TXK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 69
..JEWELL..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-031-039-043-049-
053-055-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-113-115-119-127-
251940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
ST. LANDRY UNION VERMILION
VERNON WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC199-241-245-351-361-403-405-457-251940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
NEWTON ORANGE SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-450-452-251940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 15
VALID 251740Z - 251840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LBX TO
40 SE UTS TO 20 NE LFK TO 40 SE GGG TO 25 NE GGG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 69
..JEWELL..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-031-039-043-049-
053-055-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-113-115-119-127-
251840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
ST. LANDRY UNION VERMILION
VERNON WEBSTER WINN
$$
TXC005-199-241-245-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-251840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER
JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-450-452-251840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 15
VALID 251445Z - 251540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..01/25/12
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-013-019-021-023-031-039-043-049-053-055-059-
069-073-079-081-085-097-113-115-127-251540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALCASIEU
CALDWELL CAMERON DE SOTO
EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY
VERMILION VERNON WINN
$$
TXC005-073-199-241-245-347-351-361-365-401-403-405-419-457-
251540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARDIN
JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-450-452-251540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
