Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 420 AM UNTIL NOON CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ALONG REMNANT SSW-NNE PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SE LA /JUST W OF
NEW ORLEANS/ INTO SRN MS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES ACTIVITY. ACCELERATION OF
COLD FRONT REFLECTS APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTENDANT TO
EJECTING NE TX UPR LOW. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY
THE TROUGH MAY ALSO FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING DEEP WIND FIELD...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND...LATER THIS MORNING...SFC HEATING...COULD
SUPPORT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS CONTAINING A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A FEW DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS
MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL LINE
SEGMENTS. GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND 40-50 KT 850-700 MB
FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES IN ADDITION
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 17 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 261020Z - 261800Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65WNW GZH/EVERGREEN AL/ - 35SW BVE/BOOTHVILLE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /52SE MEI - 20SE LEV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
LAT...LON 31778669 28958848 28959112 31778941
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 17 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 17
VALID 261640Z - 261740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BVE TO
45 SSE MEI.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC023-097-129-261740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW MOBILE WASHINGTON
$$
LAC087-261740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ST. BERNARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 17
VALID 261540Z - 261640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BVE TO
30 NE PIB.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-261640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-261640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
LAC087-261640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ST. BERNARD
$$
MSC023-039-041-059-111-131-153-261640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE GEORGE GREENE
JACKSON PERRY STONE
WAYNE
$$
GMZ532-555-557-630-650-655-261640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 17
VALID 261435Z - 261540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BVE TO
25 NNE PIB.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-261540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-261540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
LAC087-261540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ST. BERNARD
$$
MSC023-035-039-041-047-059-067-073-111-131-153-261540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST GEORGE
GREENE HARRISON JACKSON
JONES LAMAR PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ532-536-555-557-630-650-655-261540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 17
VALID 261331Z - 261440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW BVE TO
30 SE MSY TO 40 SSW PIB TO 30 NNE PIB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 74.
..EDWARDS..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-261440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-261440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
LAC071-075-087-103-261440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
ST. TAMMANY
$$
MSC023-035-039-041-045-047-059-067-073-109-111-131-153-261440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST GEORGE
GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON JONES LAMAR
PEARL RIVER PERRY STONE
WAYNE
$$
GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557-630-650-655-261440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 17
VALID 261239Z - 261340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE HUM
TO 15 NNE MSY TO 35 SW PIB TO 25 NNE PIB.
..EDWARDS..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-261340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-261340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
LAC051-071-075-087-089-103-261340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. TAMMANY
$$
MSC023-035-039-041-045-047-059-067-073-109-111-131-153-261340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST GEORGE
GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON JONES LAMAR
PEARL RIVER PERRY STONE
WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-630-650-655-261340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 17
VALID 261135Z - 261240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HUM TO
10 WSW HUM TO 35 SE MCB.
..EDWARDS..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-261240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-261240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-095-103-109-117-261240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TERREBONNE
WASHINGTON
$$
MSC023-035-039-041-045-047-059-067-073-091-109-111-131-147-153-
261240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST GEORGE
GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON JONES LAMAR
MARION PEARL RIVER PERRY
STONE WALTHALL WAYNE
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-630-650-655-261240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
