Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 18
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 955 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...
DISCUSSION...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MS DELTA REGION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN BY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ TO AOA 50 KT TODAY ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. NRN EXTENSION OF QLCS OVER
SWRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WEAKER
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRESENT ACROSS NRN AL WITHIN
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 18 TORNADO AL FL CW 261555Z - 262300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10SSE PNS/PENSACOLA FL/ - 25ENE BHM/BIRMINGHAM AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /37SW CEW - 28E VUZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
LAT...LON 30328837 33708765 33708504 30328586
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 18 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 18
VALID 262230Z - 262300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PFN
TO 25 SSW DHN.
WW 18 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 262300Z.
..HURLBUT..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC067-069-262300-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-045-063-133-262300-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN GULF
JACKSON WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ750-262300-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 18
VALID 262135Z - 262240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PFN
TO 25 ENE ANB.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-017-031-045-061-067-069-081-087-109-113-123-262240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
MACON PIKE RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA
$$
FLC005-013-045-059-063-131-133-262240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ750-262240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 18
VALID 262105Z - 262240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW TO
10 NNW ANB.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-017-031-045-061-067-069-081-087-109-113-123-262240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
MACON PIKE RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA
$$
FLC005-013-045-059-063-131-133-262240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ750-262240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 18
VALID 261930Z - 262040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-021-027-029-031-035-037-039-
041-045-047-051-053-061-067-069-081-085-087-099-101-105-109-111-
113-115-117-121-123-131-262040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON
CLAY CLEBURNE COFFEE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
LOWNDES MACON MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR
SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-262040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ650-655-750-262040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 18
VALID 261830Z - 261940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-021-027-029-031-035-037-039-
041-045-047-051-053-061-067-069-081-085-087-099-101-105-109-111-
113-115-117-121-123-131-261940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON
CLAY CLEBURNE COFFEE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
LOWNDES MACON MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR
SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-261940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ650-655-750-261940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 18
VALID 261745Z - 261840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-037-
039-041-045-047-051-053-061-065-067-069-081-085-087-091-099-101-
105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-131-261840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
COFFEE CONECUH COOSA
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HALE HENRY
HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR
SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-261840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
GULF HOLMES JACKSON
OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ630-650-655-750-261840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.