Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 18
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ALABAMA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 515 AM UNTIL
100 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 14...WW 15...WW 16...WW
17...
DISCUSSION...PRE-SQUALL LINE CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH LIGHTNING NOW OBSERVED OVER CNTRL AL. GIVEN
THE MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 18 TORNADO AL MS 301115Z - 301900Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
70WSW GZH/EVERGREEN AL/ - 20NE GAD/GADSDEN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /21NNE SJI - 58SW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
LAT...LON 31028923 34168697 34168469 31028702
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 18 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 18
VALID 301730Z - 301840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MOB TO
10 S RMG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 97
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-021-027-029-035-037-039-041-047-051-
053-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-121-123-131-301840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE
ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES
MACON MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
WILCOX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 18
VALID 301625Z - 301740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MOB TO
30 NE GAD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 97
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-035-037-039-
041-047-051-053-081-085-087-097-099-101-105-109-111-113-117-121-
123-129-131-301740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BULLOCK BUTLER CALHOUN
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE
ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES
MACON MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
MSC039-301740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 18
VALID 301525Z - 301640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PIB TO
30 SE TCL TO 20 N GAD.
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-035-
037-039-041-047-051-053-055-065-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-105-
109-111-113-115-117-121-123-129-131-301640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH
COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
ETOWAH HALE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
MSC039-041-111-131-153-301640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 18
VALID 301435Z - 301540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MEI
TO 20 NNW GAD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 94
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-047-051-
055-065-081-085-087-091-099-101-105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
129-131-301540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
ETOWAH HALE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC039-041-111-131-153-301540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 18
VALID 301400Z - 301440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 94.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-047-051-
055-065-081-085-087-091-099-101-105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-
129-131-301440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
COOSA DALLAS ELMORE
ETOWAH HALE LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC039-041-111-131-153-301440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.