Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MACON GEORGIA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...
DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA AND NRN FL THIS EVENING IN TANDEM WITH 40-50+
KT SLY LLJ. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS WARMED WELL INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AND WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AROUND
60 F IS RESULTING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
250-500 J/KG. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...THE
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ALREADY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2 PER S2/ INDICATE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
SUSTAINED STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 19 TORNADO FL GA CW 262130Z - 270500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW MCN/MACON GA/ - 35SW TLH/TALLAHASSEE FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /35NNW MCN - 37SSW TLH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 33228269 30048358 30048593 33228512
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 19 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 19
VALID 270135Z - 270240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE AAF TO
35 ENE ABY TO 40 S AHN.
..HURLBUT..01/27/12
ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC029-065-067-079-123-270240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
MADISON TAYLOR
$$
GAC009-017-019-023-027-071-075-091-153-155-173-185-235-275-277-
289-315-319-270240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BEN HILL BERRIEN
BLECKLEY BROOKS COLQUITT
COOK DODGE HOUSTON
IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES
PULASKI THOMAS TIFT
TWIGGS WILCOX WILKINSON
$$
GMZ730-765-270240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 19
VALID 270030Z - 270140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N AAF TO
20 NW TLH TO 25 S ABY TO 45 ESE ATL.
..HURLBUT..01/27/12
ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC029-037-039-065-067-073-079-123-129-270140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA
$$
GAC009-017-019-021-023-027-071-075-081-087-091-093-131-153-155-
169-173-185-205-225-235-275-277-287-289-315-319-321-270140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BEN HILL BERRIEN
BIBB BLECKLEY BROOKS
COLQUITT COOK CRISP
DECATUR DODGE DOOLY
GRADY HOUSTON IRWIN
JONES LANIER LOWNDES
MITCHELL PEACH PULASKI
THOMAS TIFT TURNER
TWIGGS WILCOX WILKINSON
WORTH
$$
GMZ730-755-765-270140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 19
VALID 262345Z - 270040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW AAF
TO 35 W TLH TO 30 SW ABY TO 40 ESE CSG TO 20 S ATL.
..HURLBUT..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC029-037-039-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-270040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR
WAKULLA
$$
GAC007-009-017-019-021-023-027-071-075-079-081-087-091-093-095-
131-153-155-169-171-173-177-185-193-201-205-207-225-231-235-249-
261-269-273-275-277-287-289-293-315-319-321-270040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BALDWIN BEN HILL
BERRIEN BIBB BLECKLEY
BROOKS COLQUITT COOK
CRAWFORD CRISP DECATUR
DODGE DOOLY DOUGHERTY
GRADY HOUSTON IRWIN
JONES LAMAR LANIER
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MILLER MITCHELL MONROE
PEACH PIKE PULASKI
SCHLEY SUMTER TAYLOR
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER TWIGGS UPSON
WILCOX WILKINSON WORTH
$$
GMZ730-755-765-270040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 19
VALID 262235Z - 262340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..01/26/12
ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC029-037-039-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-262340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR
WAKULLA
$$
GAC007-009-017-019-021-023-027-037-053-061-071-075-079-081-087-
091-093-095-099-131-145-153-155-169-171-173-177-185-193-197-199-
201-205-207-215-225-231-235-239-243-249-253-259-261-263-269-273-
275-277-285-287-289-293-307-315-319-321-262340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BALDWIN BEN HILL
BERRIEN BIBB BLECKLEY
BROOKS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY COLQUITT COOK
CRAWFORD CRISP DECATUR
DODGE DOOLY DOUGHERTY
EARLY GRADY HARRIS
HOUSTON IRWIN JONES
LAMAR LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARION
MERIWETHER MILLER MITCHELL
MONROE MUSCOGEE PEACH
PIKE PULASKI QUITMAN
RANDOLPH SCHLEY SEMINOLE
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TAYLOR TERRELL THOMAS
TIFT TROUP TURNER
TWIGGS UPSON WEBSTER
WILCOX WILKINSON WORTH
$$
GMZ730-755-765-262340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.