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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INTO
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 21 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TN 012145Z - 020300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NNW MEM/MEMPHIS TN/ - 75SSW GLH/GREENVILLE MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /25NNW MEM - 28E MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 35438947 32459079 32459216 35439088
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 21 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 21
VALID 020030Z - 020140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW GWO
TO 40 WSW UOX TO 25 SE MEM.
..COHEN..02/02/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC107-135-020140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PANOLA TALLAHATCHIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 21
VALID 012325Z - 020040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MLU TO
20 NNW GLH TO 35 N MEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 88
..COHEN..02/01/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC017-035-020040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICOT CRITTENDEN
$$
LAC035-067-123-020040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-027-033-053-055-083-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-151-
020040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON
$$
TNC157-020040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 21
VALID 012230Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..02/01/12
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-035-037-077-107-123-012340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT CRITTENDEN
CROSS LEE PHILLIPS
ST. FRANCIS
$$
LAC035-067-123-012340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-027-033-053-055-083-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-151-
012340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON
$$
TNC157-012340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
