Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 22
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA TO 75 MILES SOUTH OF DUBLIN VIRGINIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 21...
DISCUSSION...QLCS IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AS CONVECTION MOVES OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN VA AND NW NC...POSSIBLE RELATED TO AN
EMBEDDED MCV IN THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION
WILL BE SPORADIC AT BEST. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL SUPPORT TRANSFER OF 60-70 KT
MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/BOWING
SEGMENTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 22 SEVERE TSTM NC VA 302040Z - 310300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35N LYH/LYNCHBURG VA/ - 75S PSK/DUBLIN VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /35N LYH - 34W GSO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
LAT...LON 37837827 36047979 36048156 37838012
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 22 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 22
VALID 310030Z - 310140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HKY
TO 35 N LYH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 104.
..LEITMAN..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC033-157-169-171-197-310140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASWELL ROCKINGHAM STOKES
SURRY YADKIN
$$
VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-067-083-089-141-143-515-590-680-690-
310140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE
FRANKLIN HALIFAX HENRY
PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD DANVILLE LYNCHBURG
MARTINSVILLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 22
VALID 302340Z - 310040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HKY TO
20 ENE SSU.
..LEITMAN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC005-033-157-169-171-193-197-310040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY CASWELL ROCKINGHAM
STOKES SURRY WILKES
YADKIN
$$
VAC009-011-019-023-029-031-035-037-045-063-067-083-089-121-141-
143-155-161-163-515-530-590-640-678-680-690-750-770-775-
310040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD
BOTETOURT BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL
CARROLL CHARLOTTE CRAIG
FLOYD FRANKLIN HALIFAX
HENRY MONTGOMERY PATRICK
PITTSYLVANIA PULASKI ROANOKE
ROCKBRIDGE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA DANVILLE
GALAX LEXINGTON LYNCHBURG
MARTINSVILLE RADFORD ROANOKE
SALEM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 22
VALID 302245Z - 302340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC005-009-033-157-169-171-189-193-197-302340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY ASHE CASWELL
ROCKINGHAM STOKES SURRY
WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN
$$
VAC009-011-019-023-029-031-035-037-045-063-067-071-077-083-089-
121-141-143-155-161-163-197-515-530-590-640-678-680-690-750-770-
775-302340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD
BOTETOURT BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL
CARROLL CHARLOTTE CRAIG
FLOYD FRANKLIN GILES
GRAYSON HALIFAX HENRY
MONTGOMERY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
PULASKI ROANOKE ROCKBRIDGE
WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA DANVILLE
GALAX LEXINGTON LYNCHBURG
MARTINSVILLE RADFORD ROANOKE
SALEM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 22
VALID 302130Z - 302240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC005-009-033-157-169-171-189-193-197-302240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY ASHE CASWELL
ROCKINGHAM STOKES SURRY
WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN
$$
VAC009-011-019-023-029-031-035-037-045-063-067-071-077-083-089-
121-141-143-155-161-163-197-515-530-590-640-678-680-690-750-770-
775-302240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD
BOTETOURT BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL
CARROLL CHARLOTTE CRAIG
FLOYD FRANKLIN GILES
GRAYSON HALIFAX HENRY
MONTGOMERY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
PULASKI ROANOKE ROCKBRIDGE
WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA DANVILLE
GALAX LEXINGTON LYNCHBURG
MARTINSVILLE RADFORD ROANOKE
SALEM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
