Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 22
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20...WW 21...
DISCUSSION...BOWING MCS WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN MS AT AROUND 40 KT. UPSTREAM VAD DATA
FROM LITTLE ROCK INDICATE 50 KT WLY FLOW AT 2 KM AGL WHICH MAY BE
TRANSLATED TO THE SFC BY REAR-INFLOW JET DEVELOPING WITHIN TRAILING
STRATIFORM REGION OF MCS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN BUOYANT
AND WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 22 SEVERE TSTM MS 012300Z - 020500Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45SSE GWO/GREENWOOD MS/ - 50N TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /30NE JAN - 60E MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 32889063 34998965 34998788 32888891
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 22 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 22
VALID 020225Z - 020340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW MEI TO
10 NNW CBM TO 25 WSW MSL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 90
..COHEN..02/02/12
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC025-057-087-103-159-020340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY ITAWAMBA LOWNDES
NOXUBEE WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 22
VALID 020130Z - 020240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLH TO
40 ENE GWO TO 40 SSE MKL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 90
..COHEN..02/02/12
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-007-013-015-017-019-025-051-057-081-087-095-097-103-105-
115-117-141-145-155-159-020240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ATTALA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY HOLMES ITAWAMBA
LEE LOWNDES MONROE
MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO
UNION WEBSTER WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 22
VALID 020030Z - 020140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..02/02/12
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-007-009-013-015-017-019-025-043-051-057-071-081-087-093-
095-097-103-105-115-117-139-141-145-155-159-161-020140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ATTALA BENTON
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA
HOLMES ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE LOWNDES MARSHALL
MONROE MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC PRENTISS
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
WEBSTER WINSTON YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.